Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds and Predictions: Expect Low-Scoring Contest (April 22)
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the New York Mets in Friday night action.
- The D-backs turn to Zac Gallen, who has performed well on the mound to this point.
- Michael Arinze sees a pitcher's duel coming and explains why below.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-114 / -106)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After winning back-to-back games for the first time this season, the Diamondbacks will try to make it three in a row when they face the Mets this weekend.
This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams, as the Mets won the series a week ago when they hosted the Diamondbacks at Citi Field.
New York comes into this game at 10-4 with the best record in baseball. In contrast, Arizona sits 5-8 and last in the NL West. However, the Diamondbacks’ struggles are primarily attributable to their hitting, not pitching.
I’ll explore these issues by taking a deep dive into the total and explain why Friday’s pitching matchup could lead to another game in which runs are hard to come by.
Mets Turn to Peterson
David Peterson will hope to pitch a bit deeper into the game as he makes his third start for the Mets. The left-hander has yet to complete the required five innings to qualify for a decision.
However, like many starters this season, Peterson was also on a strict pitch count due to the shortened spring training following the work stoppage. In his first start, Peterson threw 58 pitches and 80 in his next outing.
He’s also yet to allow a run in his 8 1/3 innings. While his scoreless streak won’t last forever, he certainly has a chance to extend it a little longer against a weak-hitting Diamondbacks lineup. He should be familiar with their lineup after facing them in his last start just five days ago.
Peterson got off to a flying start his rookie year and finished 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA. However, he experienced a bit of a sophomore slump in 2021 and went 2-6 with a 5.54 ERA in 15 starts.
While rehabbing an oblique strain on the IL, Peterson fractured his foot, which prematurely ended his season. Perhaps the extended break might’ve done him some good while allowing him to hit the reset button heading into this season.
There were some positive takeaways from the season, as he posted a better BB/9 ratio in 2021 (3.92) compared to his rookie year (4.35).
His advanced numbers should also be a reason for optimism, given his 3.93 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA. Those numbers were at least one run lower than his traditional ERA. Since we’re still early in the season, SIERA has value as a foundational piece for any year-over-year predictive modeling. As a result, he’s a pitcher. I expect him to put up better numbers than in his previous year.
Gallen Should Pitch Well for Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen will get the start for the Diamondbacks after pitching against the Mets in his season debut last Saturday. The right-hander didn’t allow a run, throwing 66 pitches in four innings of work. His performance wasn’t much different from what I saw when he made his debut with the Marlins in 2019.
However, Miami traded him after seven starts to Arizona for shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. While it’s still too early to determine who won the trade, I’d have to give the edge to Gallen, considering he finished in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young in 2020.
Last season was full of ups and downs for Gallen after injuries landed him on the IL on three separate occasions. The good news is the right-hander didn’t miss a start once he returned after the All-Star break.
He might be eight games under .500 (10-18) for his career, but those numbers belie his impressive 3.41 ERA.
Gallen made 23 starts last season and went 4-10 with a 4.30 ERA. His advanced numbers show he was slightly better, given his 3.96 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA.
While we shouldn’t jump to too many conclusions after his first start, it’s worth noting that he does have decent numbers against this Mets lineup. In 58 at-bats, the Mets’ current lineup has slashed just .128/.265/.201 against Gallen.
Given Gallen’s history against the Mets, the big question for the Diamondbacks will likely be whether or not they generate much offense at the plate. Arizona ranks 27th with a wRC+ value of 74, per FanGraphs. Moreover, the Diamondbacks have the worst batting average in the league at .176. And despite ranking second with a walk rate of 12.1%, Arizona sits 29th in hitting with runners in scoring position (.148).
In 2022, MLB decided to place humidors in all 30 ballparks. Humidors allow for the storing of baseballs at an average humidity, which prevents them from drying out. Dry baseballs tend to travel longer distances, which often leads to more home runs.
Although we’re still very early into the season, the impact of humidors shouldn’t go unnoticed.
If you bet the under in every MLB game, you’d already be up 30.31 units. Even hitter-friendly parks like Coors Field, Citizens Bank Park and Chase Field have been profitable for the under. The total is 15-7 to the under for 6.63 units at the three parks combined.
If we focus solely on the Diamondbacks, the total is 10-3 to the under and 5-1 to the under when playing Chase Field. Lastly, in three of Gallen’s four starts against the Mets, the under has gone 3-1.
I like our chances for another under on Friday night when you combine Gallen’s quality on the mound with this anemic Diamondbacks offense. The total for this game sits at 8.5, and that number is readily available across multiple sportsbooks.
However, two separate models of mine project a total of 8.12 and 8.17 runs. As a result, I’ll look to grab some insurance and play it under nine at -130.
BetMGM does a great job of offering alternate lines, so I’ll look to place my action there.
Pick: Alt. Under 9 (-130)
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