Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions for Wednesday, July 5
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso of the New York Mets.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +138 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -106 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -166 |
After a disastrous month of June, the Mets are off to a much better start in July. They're 3-0 this month and have their first three-game winning streak in over a month.
Yesterday, they defeated the Diamondbacks, 8-5, in a game that saw plenty of fireworks with six home runs.
For the Diamondbacks, it was their second straight loss and their sixth in their last 10 games. However, this one was not costly. A ninth-inning rally by the Pirates over the Dodgers last night maintained Arizona's 2.5-game lead in the NL West.
The Diamondbacks will look to even up this series with a victory at home tonight. However, it's the Mets who are slight favorites with a total of 9.5 runs.
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New York Mets
Kodai Senga was originally scheduled to start yesterday's game, but he was pushed back for one more day of rest.
When Senga gets the ball, you won't see too many balls put in play. Opposing batters are hitting just .209 against him, and he has struck out 101 batters in 81.2 innings. However, he has also walked 46 batters thus far and ranks in the sixth percentile in walk percentage.
The walks have particularly gotten him in trouble this season. He has allowed three or more runs in seven starts this season, and he has walked three or more batters in five of those games.
The walks have pushed his WHIP up to 1.35, but he has done a solid job of working out of trouble. Senga has a respectable 3.53 ERA and 3.88 xERA.
Senga has grown quite comfortable at Citi Field in his first season in the United States. He owns a 2.64 ERA in eight home starts and a 4.58 ERA in seven road starts. The Diamondbacks are capable of continuing Senga's struggles on the road. If that's the case, he will need his offense to pick up the slack, which may be more likely away from Citi Field.
On the road, the Mets are hitting .248 and averaging 4.75 runs per game. Comparatively, they're hitting .231 and averaging 4.15 runs per game at home.
The long ball is the preferred method of scoring for the Mets. They rank fourth in the National League and ninth in MLB with 105 home runs. Four players have already reached double figures, led by Pete Alonso's 25, which ranks second in the NL.
Arizona Diamondbacks
For the Diamondbacks, yesterday's game could be viewed as a win despite the final score. That's because NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll returned to the starting lineup for the first time since leaving last Thursday's game against the Rays with right shoulder soreness.
He announced his return to the lineup in a big way with a first-inning home run off Max Scherzer en route to a 2-for-4 game with two RBIs.
Carroll is a good representation of why the Diamondbacks offense is so difficult to deal with. He leads the team with 18 home runs and is one of four players with double-digit dingers. He also leads the team with 24 stolen bases.
As a team, the Diamondbacks have 98 home runs and 82 stolen bases. Their ability to manufacture runs could serve them well if they remain in position to make a run in October, but it will also help in today's game.
The Diamondbacks rank 10th in the Major Leagues in walk percentage, which could be pivotal against a pitcher like Senga.
If Senga struggles with his command early on, a few walks could put runners in scoring position thanks to Arizona's speed on the basepaths. Even if the D-backs don't capitalize, the walks will drive Senga's pitch count up and could get him out of the game in five innings or less.
Tommy Henry will get the start for Arizona, and he'll look to continue his recent momentum. After posting a 5.00 ERA in his first five starts, he has lowered that mark to 3.48 over his last eight appearances (seven starts). Arizona needs a reliable No. 3 starter to emerge behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and Henry is staking his claim to the role.
However, Henry has not been flawless.
Like Senga, Henry has a 1.35 WHIP this season. He has also allowed 12 home runs in just 68.1 innings. The Mets' right-handed power bats could cause some difficulties for him tonight.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Betting Pick
Considering each team's home and road scoring averages, this total is set at appropriately 9.5 runs.
The Mets are averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last four, including eight in each of their last two games. New York's offense has been better on the road this season, and that trend may continue against Henry tonight.
Meanwhile, Senga has been worse on the road, which could favor Arizona in this matchup. If the D-backs can get him out of the game early on, they'll have an even more favorable matchup against the Mets' bullpen.
That's why I prefer the full-game total over the first five innings, although I believe both will cash.
Yesterday's game was tied at four after five innings. The full-game over hit because the Mets scored four runs off Arizona's bullpen while allowing one run to Arizona. The Diamondbacks have a slightly better bullpen ERA at 4.07, which is 19th in the MLB. The Mets, meanwhile, rank 21st with a bullpen ERA of 4.25.
Arizona's final run came in the ninth inning, but it loaded the bases in the process. That forced the Mets to bring in David Robertson to close out the game. He threw only nine pitches, but Adam Ottavino tossed 19 while Brooks Raley threw 18.
Manager Buck Showalter might not want to use both Ottavino and Raley on back-to-back days. If he doesn't get much length from Senga, he'll have some tough decisions to make.
The sooner the Mets have to go to their bullpen, the better Arizona's chances of winning and our chances of cashing this over.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) |
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