Mets vs Giants Odds & Pick | MLB Betting Prediction

The latest Mets vs Giants odds for Tuesday have the Giants installed as -140 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of just 7. I'll be targeting the moneyline for my Mets vs Giants prediction.

The Giants took the first game of this series last night at Oracle Park, as Keaton Winn shut down the Mets over six innings. Now, the Giants hand the ball to their ace, Logan Webb.

While the bats were held quiet, the Mets are still a team to be reckoned with. They've won seven of their last 10 games. Their hot streak is due to their lineup rounding into shape after a rough start to the year.

Will the resurgent Mets give us a bounce-back effort tonight behind starter Luis Severino, or will the Giants' pitching reign supreme once again? Let's dive into my Mets vs Giants pick for Tuesday night.

I mentioned how the Mets' lineup has gotten it going of late, and while they put up only two runs last night, they're in line to produce much more going forward.

New York had several slow starters, such as Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor. However, as they have improved, so has the rest of the club. The Mets own the 11th-best team xBA in baseball — 10 points higher than their actual team batting average.

They're also due to have much more thunder, as their xSLG sits 25 points higher than their current team slugging percentage. All of this bodes well against Webb, who's not quite the same pitcher this year.

Webb is arguably still the game's best sinkerballer, ranking in the 91st percentile in groundball rate. However, his strikeout rate is down nearly 4% so far this season, which has forced him to deal with a lot more traffic on the basepaths.

With the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors, the Mets can take advantage. It appears the ducks will be on the pond for New York tonight. They just have to bring them home.

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The Giants have been an average offensive club this season with a wRC+ of 99. San Francisco is not a team that can strike fast or even pose a threat in each inning.

This team scores in spurts, and much of that is due to the lineup being a mix of some players who make consistent hard contact and some who consistently do not. The top of the order consists of three threats in LaMonte Wade, Jung Hoo Lee and Michael Conforto, but Jorge Soler — who owns an xBA of .221 — is right in the middle of them.

After them, Matt Chapman and Patrick Bailey have been the club's most consistent hitters, but then the bottom of the order falls off a cliff.

Realistically, the Giants' offensive issue is lineup construction, as they have players mixed in who can derail scoring chances nearly every inning.

Tonight, it will be up to Luis Severino to navigate this lineup for New York. Severino looked to be the high-upside pitcher the Mets wanted when he was signed for cheap this offseason.

Sevy's stuff has been great, and he's been producing a ton of groundballs this season — even more than his counterpart in this matchup. Whether or not that rate is sustainable remains to be seen, but we should expect his sinkers and cutters to play a big part in his success tonight.

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The market took a clear stance in this game, as the Mets were steamed down by nearly 20 cents from the opening number. I agree with the movement and believe they're still the side you want as underdogs.

Their offense is still due to be more productive, and they may even have the edge on the mound with Webb appearing to regress a bit despite some good fortune early on this season.

Back the Mets to even up this series.

Pick: Mets ML +115 ( Play to +105)