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MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Mets vs. Padres: Fade Overvalued Starters in San Diego (Monday, June 6)

MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Mets vs. Padres: Fade Overvalued Starters in San Diego (Monday, June 6) article feature image
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Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets teammates Pete Alonso, left, and Francisco Lindor.

  • The Padres host the Mets as short favorites on Monday night in San Diego.
  • The Padres have won three straight games, but the Mets are looking for their ninth win in 11 games.
  • With a pair of pitchers the market holds in high esteem on the mound, Kenny Ducey is going with a contrarian play below.

Mets vs. Padres Odds

Mets Odds -105
Padres Odds -115
Over/Under 7.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After securing a split in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, the Mets’ West Coast road trip continues on Monday with a three-game set against the Padres.

San Diego is surprisingly hot at the moment, riding a three-game winning streak after taking a four-game set against the Brewers.

With two volatile pitchers toeing the hill, where do we look to bet this one? Let’s take a look at the matchup below.

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Which Carrasco Shows Up for the Mets?

The first part of the equation here is Carlos Carrasco, who has been an enigmatic pitcher this season. Three times he’s given up at least four earned runs in a start, including eight against the Cardinals earlier this season, yet his numbers are not bad on the whole.

The right-hander owns a 3.63 ERA with a 3.50 xERA in large part because he’s been downright dominant just as many times as he’s been a disaster. I’m not totally sold he’s a good pitcher, however.

His last outing against the Nationals was a good example of how perplexing Carrasco and his peripherals are; the right-hander completed five scoreless innings but allowed five hits and four walks with five strikeouts.

It was completely out of character considering his Walk Rate sits at 5.5% on the year and his Strikeout Rate at 21.4%, but somehow it’s not a huge surprise. That’s because no matter what, Carrasco will have an outing that’s simply unpredictable.

With all that said, though, Carrasco has rarely been objectively good this year. After his first two outings, where he went 10 2/3 innings and allowed just a run on five hits and two walks, he’s allowed hits in bunches and has frequently been fortunate to escape without too much damage.


Will the Padres Bats Break Out of Their Slump?

The other pitcher here, Blake Snell, hasn’t been all that great either. His 3.33 xERA puts him in a similar class to Carrasco, but his 4.80 ERA tells the story of a guy who has been hit hard in 2022.

To Snell’s credit, his Strikeout Rate is still at 30% for a third straight season, and his Hard-Hit Rate has fallen to 32.4%. The issue has been two-fold: Snell has given up a career-worst 14.7% Barrel Rate and compounded that with a 13.3% Walk Rate, also the worst of his career.

While the balls hit in play have largely been unassuming, he’s still putting too many runners on via the walk and has been prone to barrels like he’s always been.

With that said, the season is just three starts old for Snell. While some may take a glance at his xERA and feel confident enough backing him, the larger body of work here suggests not much has changed for the left-hander. He’s still missing bats but lacking command of the zone to get outs and limit walks.

It should be said here that for all the wins the Padres have, they continue to struggle at the plate. San Diego is down in 27th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has struck out in a poor 22.6% of at-bats.

Mets-Padres Pick

So, what do we do here? It’s a tough call. I certainly think the contact-happy Mets will get to Snell and make this one rather painful, given the five barrels the lefty has already allowed through three starts. It’s also a weird matchup, though, because the Mets don’t really walk much.

On the other hand, I want to fade Carrasco with how poorly he’s pitched, but the Padres’ offense has lacked a lot of consistency.

Luckily, the market is pretty hot on both pitchers, which I wholeheartedly disagree with. One of them may find success, but I find it hard to believe this turns into a pitcher’s duel. I will buy low on the over.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)

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