New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, Sept. 16)

Credit:

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets.

Sep 16, 2020, 05:05 PM EDT
  • The New York Mets opened as -135 favorites with Jacob deGrom on the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday night.
  • Then, everything came undone. JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies have each been ruled out with injuries, removing 21 home runs and 56 RBIs from Philadelphia's batting lineup.
  • As a result, the Mets moneyline has shot to the moon. BJ Cunningham previews tonight's game and offers projections on where this line's true value lies.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds -190 [Bet Now]
Phillies Odds +170 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 7.5 (-108/-113) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds updated as of Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


As we enter the final week and a half of the season both Mets and Phillies are fighting for one of wildcard spots. The Mets are 4.5 games out of the final wildcard spot and can’t afford to drop any more games down the stretch.

The Phillies are clinging to the first wildcard spot by three games. However, they’ll have a challenge trying to get by Jacob deGrom and the Mets top five offense today.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

New York Mets

Despite their 21-27 record, the Mets’ offense has been one of the best in baseball this season. They have the second-best wOBA (.351) and the best wRC+ (124). They’ve had most of their success versus right handed pitching, as they the best wRC+ in MLB (129).

Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto have been carrying the Mets, as they both have a wOBA over .420 and have combined for 69 RBIs this season.

The Mets have been absolutely crushing sinkers and fastball (26.6 weighted fastball/sinker runs), which are Wheeler’s main two pitches. So, they’ll have a good matchup on Wednesday.

Mets Probable Starter

Jacob deGrom, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

deGrom is having the best season of his career in 2020. He’s been untouchable, posting a 1.67 ERA and 2.44 xFIP, which are both the best marks of his career. He’s been making opposing hitters look silly, as he’s struck out 79 batters in 54 innings (13.17 K/9).

deGrom usually uses a three-pitch arsenal of a fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball may be the best in all of baseball. He’s added even more velocity this years as he’s averaging 98.5 mph on it this season, which is the highest in baseball. It has crazy movement, too, which makes it almost impossible to hit at that high of a velocity. 

With Phillies being without two of their best hitters, deGrom should have no trouble carving up their lineup.


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Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been pretty good offensively this season. Philadelphia’s lineup boasts the seventh-best wOBA (.335) and eighth-best wRC+ (108) in MLB.

However, most of the Phillies success has come against left-handed pitchers.  Philadelphia has a .371 wOBA against lefties, compared to only a .320 wOBA against righties.

Philadelphia lost two of their best hitters this past week as JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins both went down with injuries. Both Hoskins and Realmuto have led the Phillies in every statistical category and have combined for 21 home runs and 56 RBIs. So, the Phillies are likely going to struggle versus deGrom without those two guys in the lineup.

Phillies Probable Starter

Zack Wheeler, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Zack Wheeler has been fantastic so far in 2020, posting a 2.47 ERA and a 3.79 xFIP. He’s been on point with his control, allowing only two home runs and nine walks in 51 innings pitched this season.

Wheeler has an elite fastball with top-end velocity and a lot of movement. In 2019, he added a few more MPH to his fastball and continued that velocity into 2020. Hitters have had difficulty against his fastball so far this season, as he’s allowed only a .304 wOBA against it.

Wheeler’s biggest improvement has been his sinker. In 2019, it was his worst pitch, allowing a wOBA of .343 against it. So far in 2020, its been his best pitch,  as he’s allowing only a .248 wOBA against that pitch and has improved his ground ball rate from 43.2% in 2019 to 52.9% in 2020.

However, even though Wheeler has been fantastic so far this season, the Mets were able to get to him in his last start. They scored three runs on eight hits in six innings of work and should have no trouble repeating that output against tonight.

Bullpens

The Phillies made a number of acquisitions at the deadline to try and improve their bullpen, but they haven’t made a big impact, as they have a 7.00 ERA and xFIP is all the way up at 4.73. The Mets’ bullpen ranks 16th in MLB with a 4.62 xFIP, so they bullpen matchup will be pretty even in this series.

Projections and Pick

I think deGrom and Mets lineup is undervalued in this game. Philly losing their best two hitters is going to have a major impact and I don’t see how they are going to hit deGrom.

I already bet the Mets for the first five innings at -141 and for the full game at -143. The market has moved past the number I would play both of those bets up to (-150), but you can stay tuned to our MLB Live odds page to shop for the best line available as they move throughout the day.

Pick: Mets F5  | Mets ML

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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