MLB Betting Odds, Preview | Mets vs Reds Prediction (Thursday, May 11)

MLB Betting Odds, Preview | Mets vs Reds Prediction (Thursday, May 11) article feature image

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Kodai Senga (34) of the New York Mets.

Mets vs. Reds Odds

Thursday, May 11
12:35 p.m. ET
Mets Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate of games.

The New York Mets finally got back in the win column in Game 2 of this series thanks to a dominant outing by starting pitcher Justin Verlander. Now, they head into this afternoon's matchup with a chance to take the series behind another prized offseason acquisition, Kodai Senga.

Senga has been solid throughout his first six starts stateside, and he enters Thursday's outing with a 3.38 ERA. His mythical ghost forkball has baffled major league hitters, and you can bet that he will be featuring it today.

Opposing Senga for the Cincinnati Reds likely will be a myriad of arms, as the Reds are making this a bullpen game. However, we know that Derek Law will open the game, and Ben Lively will follow to eat up a chunk of the innings.

New York Mets

The Mets got their first win since April 27 last night. A large part of their struggles has been due to subpar starting pitching, but the lineup hasn't picked up the slack either. During the last week, the Mets are 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA.

However, this could be a spot where New York gets the bats going early. The Mets now have a victory under their belts and a great matchup in front of them. Derek Law has played many roles in the Reds bullpen, but this will be his first start of the season.

While he may only be around for an inning, the veteran right-hander could have a rough go of it. Law will throw the kitchen sink at batters, but he has not shown much command over his arsenal: He has walked 11 batters in 18 innings of work. Law's command issues have also led to mistakes over the middle of the plate, which have been hit hard.

His barrel rate ranks in the bottom half of the league, and that hard contact has him overdue to be hit around. Law's xERA entering this outing is 5.89, and the Mets are a team that could jump on that looming regression.

Although, if New York can't get the bats going early against Law, then chances are they will against Ben Lively at some point. Lively is a 31-year-old right-hander who's made it full circle as he was drafted by Cincinnati in 2013 but has only spent part of two seasons in the majors.

After finding himself in the KBO, this will be his season debut and his first big-league appearance since 2019. Lively enters with a career ERA of 4.80 over 26 big league appearances and had a 4.11 ERA in the KBO.

Cincinnati Reds

Despite all my harping on the Mets' lineup during the cold streak, the Reds are the team that has been struggling offensively. Cincinnati enters today's matchup with the third-lowest wRC+ in the majors and ranks 21st in wOBA.

Only Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson have above-average hard-hit rates, while the majority of the club holds hard-hit rates under 36%. On top of not hitting the ball hard, the Reds have also swung and missed quite a bit. Cincinnati has the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors and is set to face a starter who should capitalize on that.

Kodai Senga will make his seventh start of the year, and despite not looking dominant, his stuff has been very impressive. His command has consistently faltered as he's walked four batters in four of his six starts; but whenever he gets in trouble, his ghost forkball has bailed him out.

There is definitely something unique about the pitch, as major league hitters have yet to prove they can touch it. Senga has a 55.8% whiff rate with it, and batters have hit just .091 off it.

This is a lineup that Senga should have success against if he can cut down on the walks.

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Mets vs. Reds Betting Pick

Bullpen games are always a bit tricky to navigate as the matchups change consistently. However, the Reds have shown their cards, and the two they are playing for a majority of the game don't project to have much success. The Mets lineup is potent, and if they turn a corner, they can do damage quickly.

On the other side, this matchup could be the best one Senga's had in his young major league career. The Reds have plenty of young talent but have not shown consistency nor discipline.

The Mets are heavy favorites in this one, but there is value to be had in the first five as we can work with what we know. Back New York to be up halfway through this matchup.

Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-115 or better)

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