We have a full, 15-game Major League Baseball slate today, Tuesday, August 11, including Cardinals vs Cubs (2:20 PM ET, Wrigley Field) and Marlins vs Reds (6:10 PM ET, Great American Ballpark).
Read on for our six MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 6:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Cardinals vs Cubs Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the live data I use to project MLB games every day.
Below is just a sneak peek of what you can get with a PRO subscription and BARTOLO:
Pick: Under 8 (-118 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Marlins vs Reds Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
I favor backing no runs to be scored in the first inning (NRFI) in a pitching matchup featuring two scorching arms in the Reds’ Chase Burns and Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara.
In 25 starts in 2026, Alcantara has been very effective, recording a 3.52 ERA along with an efficient 1.17 WHIP, both of which rank inside the top 30 amongst starting pitchers.
The former NL Cy Young winner may just be the hottest arm in all of baseball over the last six weeks after seven consecutive quality starts.
Like Alcantara, Burns is having a phenomenal 2026 campaign.
In just his second season in the Major Leagues, the Reds 23-year-old has undoubtedly been one of baseball’s hottest pitchers, with his 2.61 ERA ranking 7th in the entire league.
The right-hander has been remarkably efficient as well, entering this showdown with a 1.12 WHIP throughout his 124 frames of work.
Given how hot both starters are heading into this contest, I feel confident in a scoreless first inning of a game where runs should come at a premium.
Pick: NRFI (-160 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Red Sox vs Pirates Best Bet
I was combing through Zerillo’s BARTOLO projections (as one does) when I noticed that he projects some serious value on the Pirates as home ‘dogs against the Red Sox.
I’m interested in this wager for a few reasons.
First, the Sox are likely seeing some regression from that crazy six-week win streak. They’ve lost five of their past six games, with two coming by one run and two coming by two runs.
They’ve been playing great ball in Boston, but the Sox will suffer a few more tough losses before the season is out.
Second, Jake Bennett is likely due for a little more regression. A 3.93 xFIP and 3.98 botERA back up his 3.17 ERA, as he’s running a fairly low BABIP (.261). Although he’s a good pitch-to-contact guy, he doesn’t have great stuff (92 Stuff+, 18% strikeout rate).
In fact, Zerillo power rates Bubba Chandler as the better starting pitcher in this matchup.
Bennett also has some stark splits. He’s struck out 21% of left-handed batters while allowing a .434 OPS, but he’s struck out only 16% of right-handed batters while allowing a .644 OPS.
With three switch-hitters at the top of the order, the Pirates could send eight righties up to the plate on Friday night.
Finally, the Sox have the best bullpen in baseball, but the Pirates also have a top-10 relief unit.
I really like the Bucs in this one.
Pick: Pirates ML (+110 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Diamondbacks vs Braves Best Bet
By Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
This is a Derek Carty special.
It’s always gross and scary fading one of the best pitchers in baseball — I have nothing bad to say about Chris Sale.
But nobody wants to bet against the Aces, so the books shade lines in that direction, so you are often offered value on the other side.
That’s what we’re getting today with Sale against a Diamondbacks lineup that has a very low strikeout rate.
Pick: Chris Sale Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Mariners vs Astros Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This is a Fade System.
MLB favorites returning home after a road trip often underperform in their first game back, especially when facing a division opponent.
These teams may experience travel fatigue, logistical reset distractions, or overvaluation in the betting market due to home-field assumptions.
Division opponents, already familiar with the park and team tendencies, pose a more competitive threat, reducing the edge of the home favorite.
Pick: Mariners ML (+100 or Better)
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Chris Prince's Rangers vs Athletics Best Bet
By Chris Prince
It's always risky backing a pitcher in this ballpark, but there's a lot to like here, and I think it's well worth the risk.
Gage Jump has a strong 26.5% strikeout rate on the season, and he has taken that to another level over the past 30 days, where his K rate sits at a whopping 32.4%. He has gone over this number in 7 of his last 11 starts and barely missed with 5 strikeouts in 3 of those starts.
Jump draws a great strikeout spot here against Texas, who has the 4th-highest strikeout rate in the league against LHP (25.1%). 6 batters in the projected lineup are sitting above a 24.5% K rate against LHP this season (and 4 of them are above 28.5%).
Pick: Gage Jump Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 or Better)
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