Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, August 14.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Toronto Blue Jays ML (+127)
- Mariners vs Astros — Under 8 Total Runs (-103)
- Diamondbacks vs Braves — Over 8 Total Runs (-109)
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick
Betting on 2026 Shane Bieber against a rejuvenated Gerrit Cole is not advised in a vacuum. However, Shane Bieber has strung together incredible starts at home this season, specifically his past two.
- July 18: 6 IP, 3 hits, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K, 2.16 xERA, 3.35 xFIP
- July 23: 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 BB, 0 ER, 3.13 xERA, 3.31 xFIP
He has been one of baseball's worst pitchers on the road, and his first two starts at home were poor (his first two back this season). Nevertheless, at plus-money, this is worth taking.
The Yankees' offense is below average on the road (94 wRC+), and they have been one of the league's worst overall in the last month (80 wRC+).
The Blue Jays' offense is actually worse in the past 30 days (79 wRC+), but they may cause some trouble for Gerrit Cole with their righty-dominant offense.
- Cole vs RHP this season: 19% K-BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.70 xFIP, .307 wOBA allowed
All of these marks are higher than his splits against left-handed hitters, which is odd for an RHP.
Cole is also pitching worse on the road than at home. He may not get shelled today, but a few runs against him could be enough to win the game given New York's recent cold offensive streak.
Picks: Toronto Blue Jays ML (+127)
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Pick
The Astros' offense is one of the best in baseball in the past 30 days (109 wRC+), and they are better against RHP (108 wRC+) than LHP (97 wRC+) this season.
However, George Kirby is mowing down right-handed hitters this season, and he will be facing a righty-dominant Astros lineup today.
- Kirby vs. RHH: 23.4% K, 2.7% BB, 3.12 xFIP
His opponent, Peter Lambert, has had better pitching results (3.09 ERA), but his peripheral stats are slightly worse. Nevertheless, Lambert has been excellent. He has not allowed more than two ER in a single start since July (39 1/3 IP).
Meanwhile, the Mariners' offense is mediocre in the past month. They rank 20th in the last 30 days (89 wRC+) and are facing turnover in their lineup, with Cole Young dealing with dizziness, Taylor Ward hurt, and Colt Emerson sent down to Triple-A.
Maybe a change in lineup sparks them, but that needs to be seen first. Also, both bullpens should be fully available for two starters who are both capable of pitching at least six innings.
Picks: Mariners/Astros Under 8 Total Runs (-103)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Pick
Brandon Pfaadt cannot keep getting away with it. By "it", I mean seeing the results he has this season, despite not pitching that well.
- Pfaadt in 2026: 3.36 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 4.59 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA, 8.4% K-BB
While he has made notable changes to his profile, such as posting a career-high 48.5% groundball rate, he is not striking out enough batters to sustain anything close to his 3.36 ERA.
Pfaadt will be facing a full-strength Braves' offense that ranks 7th in the past 30 days (113 wRC+) and 9th in home wRC+ (110 wRC+).
Braves' ace Chris Sale is taking the mound today, but he may struggle as well. The Diamondbacks' offense ranks third against LHP (115 wRC+) and sixth overall in the past 30 days (116 wRC+).
Arizona's offense is much worse on the road (87 wRC+), but hitting in Truist Park is favorable this season (8th in StatCast Park Factor).
Picks: Diamondbacks/Braves Over 8 Runs (-109)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 14
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Toronto Blue Jays ML (+127)
- Mariners vs Astros — Under 8 Total Runs (-103)
- Diamondbacks vs Braves — Over 8 Runs (-109)
