Mets vs Yankees Odds & Picks: Why to Fade Carlos Rodon

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Picks: Why to Fade Carlos Rodon article feature image

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon.

Mets vs Yankees Odds

Wednesday, July 26
7:05 p.m. ET
Mets Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120 / +100
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120 / +100
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The second and final game of this Subway Series gets underway Wednesday evening with the AL East's New York Yankees hosting the NL East's New York Mets.

The Mets look to complete the mini-sweep after winning Tuesday's contest, 9-3. Will the Mets take care of business once again, or can the Yankees end the series on a high note?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Mets vs. Yankees betting pick and prediction.

New York Mets

It has been a very underwhelming season for the Mets, at least compared to preseason expectations. With a 47-53 record, the Mets sit in fourth place in the NL East.

Hitting has been a huge weakness for this team, as it ranks in the bottom third of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.

However, the one thing the Mets do well at the dish is avoid striking out. They rank 11th in the league in K% when facing left-handed pitching. Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 23% this season.

Opposing starting pitchers have now recorded six or fewer strikeouts in seven of the past nine games against the Mets. This trend is likely to continue in this matchup with left-hander Carlos Rodon slated to take the mound for the Yankees.

New York Yankees

Rodon should serve as a solid fade candidate in this matchup. Due to multiple injuries, the left-hander didn't make his season debut until this month, but the key offseason acquisition for the Yankees hasn't looked sharp in the limited sample size thus far.

Through three starts, he's 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. His underlying metrics across those two outings are troubling as well, as he posted a 5.78 xERA and .498 xSLG.

Specifically, we're going to fade Rodon in the strikeout department. While he has been one of the premier strikeout artists in the league over the past two seasons, he has just not shown any promise through his first three starts this year.

He posted a mere 16.9 K% over those three outings and has failed to surpass six strikeouts in any of those starts.

You can find his strikeout prop as high as 6.5 at FanDuel, which makes sense considering his long-term profile but short-term struggles.

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Mets vs Yankees Betting Pick

While Rodon is a better pitcher than his three-game sample size suggests, he just cannot be trusted right now. Furthermore, this current Mets lineup possesses a mere 18 K% and 21.3 Whiff% in 61 career plate appearances against the left-hander.

Until Rodon proves he's capable of performing at the level he did for the White Sox (and Giants, briefly), he will continue to be a fade candidate in the strikeout department.

Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110 · Play to -125)

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