Mike Trout Injury Causing Major Line Movement vs. Brewers
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Trout.
- On Tuesday, Mike Trout left the game vs. the Brewers after aggravating his groin running the bases.
- Trout is expected to miss tonight's game, which has caused significant line movement.
- After opening at -105, the Angels have moved all the way to +137 without Trout despite the fact that most star position players can only move the line five to ten cents.
Mike Trout, as expected, is off to a torrid start this season. He’s slashing .406/.592/.938 to go with five bombs and a 1.3 fWAR. However, he left Tuesday night’s game with a groin injury and is expected to sit tonight out in the Angels’ series finale vs. the Brewers.
ICYMI (which you probably did because it was late): #Angels Mike Trout talked last night about his groin injury. He doesn’t sound worried, but he’s not playing today. By @jphoornstra (who must have been thrilled to be filling in for a 4-hr game) https://t.co/MjLPkZutSc
— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) April 10, 2019
Generally speaking, MLB players — even good ones — don’t cause much line movement. While the top NBA and NFL stars can move a spread upwards of five points, a good position player in the MLB might move a moneyline five cents.
Trout is a different beast, though. Yesterday, the line for tonight’s game opened at Brewers -115/Angels -105 with Brandon Woodruff taking on Felix Pena. That line had moved to Brewers -125/Angels +114 before the start of last night’s game, but has since moved all the way to Brewers -152/Angels +137.
Though the move from +114 to +137 only corresponds with a 4.5% change in implied probability, it’s something that’s pretty unusual when it comes to baseball.
Of course, the betting market has a lot to do with this movement, too, and 73% of bettors are fading the Trout-less Angels. Those 73% of bets also account for 82% of dollars, showing us that some big bettors are also backing the Brew-Crew.