Happy Dinger Tuesday!
Check out my 5 favorite MLB Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, September 22, including picks for Reds vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
| 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction, Pick
I wouldn't be surprised if this game doesn't play, and if it does, the weather won't be good, but these odds are too high.
Max Scherzer has been pitching better lately, but the Blue Jays SP still is a complete gas can for lefty power.
The wind will be blowing in heavily, and it will be cold and wet, but I have the true odds for Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo at around +650.
Pick: Samuel Basallo Home Run
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Reds vs Braves Prediction, Pick
We don't have a huge sample size on Braves starter JR Ritchie in the majors, but he has been a plus matchup for righty power (1.35 HR/9).
This ballpark is a downgrade compared to Cincy, and the weather should be around average, but Sal Stewart is far too good of a home run hitter to be priced like this.
I have the true odds for the Reds 1B at around +450.
Pick: Sal Stewart Home Run
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Reds vs Braves Prediction, Pick
This is a lefty/lefty matchup, but it's actually a big plus spot for Matt Olson.
Reds SP Brandon Williamson has reverse splits when it comes to power, allowing a massive 1.75 HR/9 in his career.
Olson has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season, with 40 dingers. The weather should be around average for hitting, and while there is going to be some rain, this game should play.
I have the true odds for the Braves' 1B at around +300.
Pick: Matt Olson Home Run
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Mets vs Rangers Prediction, Pick
Jake Burger gets a great spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
Mets starter Sean Manaea has some heavy splits, and he's been hammered by righty power this season (1.72 HR/9).
This ballpark isn't great for power, but the matchup more than makes up for it.
I have the true odds for the Rangers 1B at around +340.
Pick: Jake Burger Home Run
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Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick
This isn't a bad spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
Dodgers SP Justin Wrobleski has been a plus matchup for righty power this season (1.25 HR/9), and he's due for some negative regression.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the league's hottest hitter since the All-Star Break, with a massive 20 homers in 59 games.
I have the true odds for the Padres DH at around +320.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
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