The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 22, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound against the Padres' Nick Pivetta in this series opener.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Padres Prediction
- Brewers vs Padres pick: Under 7 (-105)
My Brewers vs Padres best bet is Under 7 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Padres Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Brewers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 17-6 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 2.65 / 3.31 | ERA / xERA | 2.81 / 3.97 |
| 3.61 / 3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 3.49 / 3.80 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 18.7 | K-BB% | 20.1 |
| 37.3 | GB% | 32.9 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 104 | Location+ | 109 |
Brewers vs Padres Preview
Two NL Cy Young candidates will take the mound tonight. Freddy Peralta might have a case, but it's up against Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sanchez for the award, while Nick Pivetta will close the season among the best in the circuit.
Nevertheless, both are a great combination for the under in this game, as our Bet Labs system recommends.
Peralta is finishing strong with an amazing 1.38 ERA in his past seven outings. The Brewers ace is coming off an excellent start against the Angels, with just two hits and one run allowed in six innings, and 10 strikeouts.
Pivetta has also been doing well lately with a 2.40 ERA in his last seven outings. The Padres starter has better splits at home, with a 2.22 ERA compared to his 3.55 ERA on the road.
He will be facing a Brewers lineup that only produced five runs total in their three-game series versus the Cardinals this last weekend.
Plus, the "Public Fades Humidity = Unders" system has a weather angle that supports the under as the choice for this series opener.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between 6 and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 7 (-105, bet365)
Brewers vs Padres Betting Trends
