The Los Angeles Dodgers (59-42) host the Minnesota Twins (48-52) on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Twins vs Dodgers prediction for Tuesday night below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Twins vs Dodgers Prediction
- Twins vs Dodgers pick: Twins ML (+185) | Play to +170
My Twins vs Dodgers best bet is the Twins moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Dodgers Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Twins vs Dodgers Run line: Twins +1.5 (-125); Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
Twins vs Dodgers Total: 8 (O -110 / U -110)
Twins vs Dodgers Moneyline: Twins +170; Dodgers -210
Twins vs Dodgers Best Bet: Twins ML
Twins vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | Stat | RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.95/4.12 | ERA /xERA | 2.59/2.91 |
| 4.41/4.81 | FIP / xFIP | 3.21/3.13 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 19.2% |
| 31.4% | GB% | 53.8% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 98 | Location+ | 108 |
Kenny Ducey’s Twins vs Dodgers Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Woods Richardson Due for Positive Regression
I really can't stress enough how little trust I have in Simeon Woods Richardson. He doesn't carry a very reliable profile with him as a low-strikeout, high-walk arm who has failed to find a way to pitch to contact in his four big-league seasons.
He's seen his hard-hit rate jump in the last two seasons, and this year he's rolled up fewer ground balls than ever before. That's caused his Expected Slugging to spike back up to .437 this season, along with a merely pedestrian, much lower Batting Average, and the walks have only grown more troublesome as the season has worn on.
That doesn't mean a pitcher can't improve, and while Woods Richardson isn't exactly a fresh face, it's important to remember he's still 24 years of age.
The right-hander made great strides in June, with a .195 opposing batting average last month, backed by a much lower .236 xBA. That number has come down to .145 in three starts this month. The damage being done is also significantly easier to stomach with his xSLG tumbling down around the .300 range since the start of June, a result of an ever-improving hard-hit rate, and while he's gotten fewer whiffs, that's hardly a concern given his contact-oriented approach.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Splits Work Against Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, on the other hand, has been very dominant on the whole this season but has been a mixed bag of late. Just two starts brought, he failed to complete one inning in Milwaukee, allowing five runs (three earned) on four hits, including a homer, and two walks. There were also some warning signs in June.
When it's all said and done, however, Yamamoto has been virtually unhittable this month despite that eyesore of a line. He's taken a rough .253 xBA and .423 xSLG last month and brought those numbers down to .183 and .264 in July, respectively, and he's continued to find a ton of success in pitching to a bundle of ground balls.
Now, there are a few issues at hand that we need to discuss. The first is this Dodgers' infield defense, which ranks a humbling 14th in Outs Above average this year and has posted a mark of -2 this month to sit 20th. Yamamoto is unlikely to pitch underneath his expected numbers as a result, and compounding that is the fact that the Twins sit 11th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers, representing a clear disadvantage in the splits for the righty.
The other thing we need to discuss is Yamamoto's declining strikeout-to-walk ratio. He walked 10% of the batters he faced last month, improving only slightly to an 8.1% walk rate this month, but it's a worrying trend given his career walk rate has more or less continued to rise with every month he's spent in the majors over the last two years.
Yamamoto has also come nowhere near the spectacular whiff rates he was posting last year and through the first two months of 2025. He's sitting around 23% over the last two months, which is a big deal for a guy who's up around 28% for that career, and the result has been a sub-25% strikeout rate in the last two months. He was around that elite tier of 30% entering June.
Twins vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Twins will already be licking their chops at the sight of a ground-ball pitcher, a matchup that's been much friendlier to them relative to the league numbers, and for a team which has been red hot and owns the second-best wRC+ over the last two weeks, that's a tough pill for the Dodgers to swallow.
The Twins have owned a deadly .234 Isolated Power over that span with the likes of Royce Lewis and Ryan Jeffers beginning to heat up, and while they did just get done with a three-game set at Coors Field, there is plenty to like about this talented roster.
Minnesota has also held a tidy 18.5% strikeout rate over that span, meaning it's unlikely that Yamamoto's waning strikeout numbers will take a turn in the right direction. He's been susceptible to power all season long, and nobody is hitting the ball harder than the Twins right now.
I don't know if I've ever bet on Woods Richardson in my career — in fact, I'm quite certain I haven't — but the youngster has been picking it up of late and is inspiring some confidence at just the right time here with the Dodgers lacking much of anything at the plate aside from some big blows on Monday night.
This Twins offense is significantly out-performing their opponents, and we've got two pitchers trending in slightly different directions. That should open the door for the road underdogs to grab a crucial win as they look to influence the front office not to sell at the upcoming trade deadline.
Pick: Twins ML (+185)
Moneyline
Take the Twins on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no play on the run line.
Over/Under
There is no play on the total.
