We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
I wrote about Columbus/Buffalo and Jacksonville/Gwinnett on Action Network earlier in the week, and the analysis there should still play this weekend. Let’s take a look at a couple of different series here.
St. Paul Saints @ Indianapolis Indians
Friday, 6:35 PM ET
I’ve got some big-time concerns about the pitching situation for St. Paul heading into the weekend. The Saints already lacked depth in the pitching department and were gutted earlier this week when Connor Prelipp and Kendry Rojas were called up by the Twins around the time Mick Abel hit the IL.
John Klein started on Thursday, so he’s likely done until next week, and Zebby Matthews has been so bad it’s possible he ends up just being part of one of the bullpen games.
That has to be music to the ears of an Indianapolis lineup that struggled out of the gate but has started to get going.
Ronny Simon, Esmerlyn Valdez, Rafael Flores and Alika Williams have all been productive, and Simon and Flores have been great at the Triple-A level for a couple of years now.
I think 2022 1st rounder (fourth overall pick) Termarr Johnson eventually gets it going, and the addition of Hunter Barco earlier this week has provided additional depth to a staff that hasn’t had to burn many high-leverage relievers yet.
Thomas Harrington, Noah Davis, and Jose Urquidy (projected starting pitchers the next three days) should all have the edge in their respective outings, and I think in general, Indianapolis is still viewed as the underdog between these two teams.
That could change after another win or two, but you should see Indianapolis in the -110 to -120 range this weekend, and I don’t think that number truly accounts for what a disaster St Paul’s pitching staff is heading into the weekend.
Pick: Indianapolis Indians ML
Nashville Sounds @ Charlotte Knights
Friday, 7:04 PM ET
At some point, you have to think the duo of Cooper Pratt and Jett Williams starts hitting. This was supposed to be one of the better one- two punches in the International League this season, but both enter the weekend hitting under .200.
Pratt just signed an eight-year, $50 million contract extension with Milwaukee at the beginning of this month. Some probably thought the 21-year-old Pratt would have gotten the Konnor Griffin treatment (called up shortly after the payday), but Pratt has a .442 OPS in AAA right now, so he simply hasn’t earned it yet.
Because Williams hasn’t hit yet either, I feel like I’m buying somewhat low on a Nashville team that is otherwise very good while selling a Charlotte team that has lost some of its better players to the White Sox and has been hit by injuries recently.
Nashville’s Luis Lara is one of the top players in all of Triple-A right now, and the Brewers have more starting pitching than they know what to do with, which means the Sounds probables this weekend of Coleman Crow, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson are all guys that could probably be pitching in Milwaukee.
Charlotte still has some big-time arms, but the Knights offense has been derailed by Sam Antonacci being called up and William Bergolla Jr. hitting the injured list.
Charlotte will likely go with Shane Smith, Doug Nikhazy and Duncan Davitt this weekend, so the Knights will have comparable starting pitching.
I think the fact that Nashville has two guys (Pratt and Williams) that probably have some positive regression coming, and by far the best player (Luis Lara) gives Nashville the edge in the weekend (Friday-Sunday) portion of this series.
I also think the caliber of pitching, combined with the fact neither team is knocking the cover off the ball at the moment, makes UNDER a good look as well in Charlotte this weekend.
Pick: Nashville Sounds ML / Under
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- Indianapolis Indians ML (vs. St. Paul, 6:35 p.m. ET)
- Nashville Sounds ML / Under Total Runs (@ Charlotte, 7:04 p.m. ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
