We have a full 15-game slate today, starting early with Astros vs Cubs at 2:20 PM ET at Wrigley Field on MLB.TV, and closing with Athletics vs Padres at 9:40 PM ET at PetCo Park on MLB.TV.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Friday.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
 | Night | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Astros vs Cubs Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
With today's game featuring Spencer Arrighetti and Jameson Taillon on the bump, I was stunned to find out that this over/under was 7.5.
To me, these days, the most important thing when betting on games at Wrigley is the wind.
These totals have fluctuated wildly this year. We've seen 11.5's, we've seen 6.5's, and it's all because everybody thinks the wind is howling straight out or straight in, as if the players have nothing to say about the run environment.
And I think it's gotten out of control. How much difference could the wind truly make, right? I will grant you, there are certain days there where it's wild. But almost every Wrigley game now has a super-high or super-low total — it's like the entire pricing algorithm just looks at what people are likely to do because of the weather.
Maybe you're a more responsible bettor who really believes in this Wrigley winds stuff. I believe in it to a point. I just think that the books have taken advantage of it. People know about the wind stuff, and they think they're being sharp by betting according to it.
So I'm always looking to take the other side. And the over 7.5 or Arrighetti vs. Taillon just seems like such a good bet.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Cardinals vs Reds Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
Despite a relatively disappointing first three years for Saint Louis’ former highly-touted prospect, Jordan Walker has taken a massive leap in 2026 and has quickly established himself as one of baseball’s premier sluggers.
The Cardinals’ 23-year-old phenom ranks inside the top-10 in several statistical categories, having smashed 13 home runs, driven in 34 RBIs, and has been slashing at the plate with a 0.938 OPS thus far.
While Saint Louis’ fanbase was certainly worried about its top prospect across his first few years in the MLB, the Cardinals’ youngster has silenced the critics and is now the best player on the entire ball club.
In addition to his scorching form at the plate, Walker gets a very favorable matchup in Cincinnati, as veteran right-hander Chris Paddack is set to take the mound for the Reds amid a terrible 2026 campaign.
The Reds’ 30-year-old was just signed to a one-year contract after having recorded career-low numbers on the mound to start his 2026 campaign with the Marlins. Paddack’s 7.63 ERA across seven outings with Miami was enough for the club to release him.
Though Paddack slightly improved in his first start with the Reds, having allowed two earned runs across five frames, I expect Paddack to continue his horrific form as Cincinnati hosts a red-hot Cardinal bunch.
While Walker is hitless in three prior plate appearances against the Reds’ veteran, the Cardinals’ youngster is an entirely different player this season and has a hard-contact profile at the plate, which should pose problems for Paddack.
Saint Louis’ superstar has drastically changed his batting stance, resulting in a complete transformation from a hitter with a high ground-ball rate to one who can generate substantial power at the plate with a much higher barrel rate.
Walker’s elite exit velocities and slugging metrics against right-handed pitching should be problematic for Paddack, given his current form.
Paddack’s command issues in 2026 have resulted in the Reds’ righty having to rely far more on his four-seam fastball, which happens to be Walker’s most favorable pitch to display his raw power at the plate.
Given Walker’s improved patience at the plate, I do not expect him to chase Paddack’s off-speed arsenal, and the Cardinals’ star could very well smash a high-velocity fastball if it is left up in the zone.
That said, I feel great backing Walker to exceed his total bases prop.
Pick: Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140 or Better)
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Kevork Mahserejian's Mets vs Marlins Best Bet
Eury Perez is one of the unluckier starters in baseball this season. His 5.33 ERA is backed by a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.22 SIERA. Neither peripheral stat is categorically "good", but a significant difference leads to eventual regression.
The Marlins starter has the stuff to be a much better pitcher, yet he has not put it together. Fortunately, he does not have to be much different to succeed in tonight's game. Perez is a much different pitcher at home than on the road. Whether it be due to comfort and/or trust, we cannot say, but there is a notable improvement at LoanDepot Park.
- Perez at home: 3.86 ERA, 18.6% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.89 xFIP
- Perez on the road: 7.03 ERA, 7.1% K-BB, 1.68 WHIP, 5.18 xFIP
The samples for both splits are small (under 30 IP), but the difference is intriguing as Perez does not have bad luck driving his road stats.
Furthermore, facing a Mets offense ranking fifth-worst against right-handed pitching this season should help him bounce back.
The Mets will be trotting out opener Tobias Myers, with long-man Sean Manaea piggybacking. Myers has pitched well this season, but in shorter stints. He has not thrown three innings since April 10.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, with declining velocity and stuff. With the Marlins ranking league-average against RHP and LHP, they will be ready for either pitcher.
Both teams have rested bullpens, but the pitching advantage lies heavily with the Marlins.
Pick: Marlins ML (+100 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Athletics vs Padres Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.2% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced — likely due to lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
I love these A's — they mash at the plate — and I have all the faith in the world that they'll beat up on Walker Buehler, who looks like a shell of himself.
Pick: Athletics ML (+100 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Full Action App Card for Friday
Need more picks for Friday's all-day action? It's always wise to see what our guy Zerillo is betting on!
Make sure to follow him in the Action App to get all his MLB picks.
