We have a 11-game Major League Baseball slate today to start the week.
Our staff of baseball bettors has expert picks from the first game, Cardinals vs. Reds Game 1 of the doubleheader (1:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park), to the last one, Dodgers vs. Rockies at 8:40 PM ET (Coors Field).
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:00 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mike Ianniello's Cardinals vs Reds Best Bet for Game 1
Given so much uncertainty around the pitching and with strategy with a double header, this game is ultimately a pass for me. If you are somebody who is bored at work this afternoon and absolutely needs to bet this game, I would lean towards St. Louis, given all the pitching questions for Cincinnati.
Regardless of who starts for the Reds, they will most likely just be asked to cover an inning or two. But Antone, Garcia, and Marinaccio are all unavailable, and Sam Moll is likely fatigued as well. That leaves just four true relievers and closer Emilio Pagan fully rested to try and cover the relief innings for two games today.
Mathews is obviously very unproven, but he has shown elite strikeout upside in the minor leagues. He has a 10.91 K/9 rate in Triple-A this season. Mathews throws a fastball in the high 90s with a dynamic changeup. His issue has just been with his command. I’ll take my chances with his upside that he can find the zone on Monday.
Offensively, both of these teams are pretty underwhelming. They sit 24th and 25th in team OPS this season. However, over the last two weeks St. Louis ranks seventh in OPS and sixth in runs scored thanks to the Baez debut and a red-hot Alec Burleson.
The Cardinals have a deeper lineup right now and a fully rested bullpen to help them navigate the first half of this double header. I lean the Red Birds in Game 1.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline
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Jon Anderson's Marlins vs Phillies Pitching Prop
By Jon Anderson
It's a home start for Cristopher Sanchez, and this series has big playoff implications with the Marlins just three games out of the final Wild Card spot and the Phillies holding on tightly to their spot.
The game-one advantage is massively in Philadelphia's favor. They are -235 behind Sanchez. Let's remind you about Sanchez's home/road splits this year:
at home: 1.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29% K%, 6% BB%
on road: 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K%, 4% BB%
I don't know what it is about Citizens Bank Park that makes him so much better, but it's a common thread in his career.
This should be considered an elite matchup for Sanchez as well. The Marlins are hitting .231/.311/.357 against lefties since July 1st with just nine homers.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 Outs
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Chris Prince's Tigers vs Pirates Ks Pick
By Chris Prince
While this is a decent strikeout spot against the Pirates, this number simply feels too high.
Framber Valdez's strikeout rate on the season sits at just 18.1%, and that is being propped up by a 27.7% K rate against lefties.
The issue here is that Pittsburgh is expected to roll out 8 righties, and Valdez has just a 15.1% K rate against righties (and it's just 13.5% over the past 30 days).
Valdez has started 24 games this season; he's gone over this number in only 7 of those 24 starts and in just 2 of his last 8 starts (both of which came against the Athletics).
Pick: Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts
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John Feltman's White Sox vs Cubs F5 Bet
By John Feltman
I’m backing the Cubs F5 ML behind Shota Imanaga, and a big piece of this handicap is fading Luis Castillo immediately after arguably his best start of the season.
Stacking the starting pitchers' contact profiles side-by-side, Imanaga holds opponents to an 88.3 mph average exit velocity, 35.5% hard-hit rate, and a .302 xwOBA against Castillo’s 90.1 mph EV, 41.5% hard-hit rate and .330 xwOBA. There’s a noticeable gap in the quality of contact each starter has surrendered.
I also love the situational angle here. While the White Sox deserve respect after sweeping Detroit, I don’t necessarily want to mess around with a full-game Cubs ML and introduce six-plus innings of bullpen variance.
That’s exactly why I prefer the F5 angle here. We’re isolating the matchup I want and the Cubs lineup getting two cracks through the order.
Lay the juice and give me the North Siders to get ahead early.
Pick: Cubs F5 Moneyline
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Sean Zerillo's Dodgers vs Rockies ML Pick
By Sean Zerillo
My model shows solid value on the moneyline for this Dodger vs. Rockies matchup.
BARTOLO projects Los Angeles with a 76.1% chance to win, a line closer to -319.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out our new PRO baseball tool, BARTOLO, which gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Dodgers ML
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