Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets for Red Sox vs. Braves, Orioles vs. Cardinals
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Cedric Mullins.
- With a full slate of MLB games today, our staff of betting analysts have three games in mind for their best bets.
- After an afternoon matinee between the Guardians and White Sox, we turn to a pair of night games for three picks.
- Check out our favorite picks in baseball below.
All baseball, all the time.
At least that's the case on Wednesday night. The first game today starts at 12:35 p.m. ET, and the final first pitch is in St. Louis at 7:45. Sit back and relax.
Our staff of MLB betting analysts have you covered with a matchup in Atlanta, where the Red Sox and Braves face off with a pair of strong starters on the mound, before finishing the night in St. Louis.
Check out our four favorite picks for tonight below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Editor's note: This game has been postponed due to positive COVID-19 tests in the Guardians clubhouse.
Guardians vs. White Sox
Jules Posner: Aaron Civale has struggled to find his footing in 2022, especially on the road. So far he's posted a 12.19 ERA and 6.18 FIP over 10 1/3 road innings.
On the other side, Vince Velasquez has probably been one of the more frustrating pitchers to bet against as of late. To start the season, he was considered an automatic fade, but in total, he has only had one truly bad start. Some outings have been shaky, but he's made it through for the most part.
The Guardians offense has been surprisingly good this season, but it seems books and bettors alike still consider them a weak offensive team. However, Guardians' games have hit the over in 8 of their last 12 games.
Additionally, the Guardians offense is fourth in team wRC+ against RHP on the road over the past two weeks and they sixth in runs scored on the road as well.
The White Sox offense has still been a question mark, but as the weather warms up on the South Side, their bats may warm up as well.
While the over has only hit once in their last five games, that one game was at home.
With a Guardians' offense that can carry a total and a White Sox offense looking to break out against a struggling pitcher, the over should be the play in this matchup. It's at 8.5 runs now and should be taken as long as it stays there.
Red Sox vs. Braves
Tanner McGrath: I’m not sure what’s going on with Ian Anderson, but he doesn’t look like the young stud of the past few years.
He’s actually been worse than replacement level through five starts, barely managing 24 innings with a -0.1 fWAR. His 4.01 ERA is backed up by a 5.03 FIP, which is backed up by a .229 BABIP and a 14.2% walk rate.
Moreover, Anderson’s spin rate is down across every major pitch. Specifically, his two fastballs (four-seam, sinker), which both now rank in the first percentile among qualified pitchers.
Now, the Red Sox can’t get anything going offensively. But, I can’t help but bet Nathan Eovaldi against this Anderson mess in the first half Wednesday night.
Eovaldi is still pitching quite well for a Boston staff that’s actually over-performing. He’s tossed almost 34 innings over his six starts and kept his ERA under 3.00 despite a home run problem (23.5% HR/FB rate, 10.8% career).
I’m expecting that home run problem to resolve itself, and I’m relatively high on Eovaldi going forward.
Which is why I’m willing to back the Sox as F5 underdogs on Wednesday. The pitching disparity is too large to ignore, even if the Red Sox couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. And it’s not like the Braves have been crushing the ball, posting a 99 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
At anything better than -105, this first-half is a buy from me.
Red Sox vs. Braves
Kenny Ducey: It’s been a tough year for the Red Sox. They’ve fallen to just 11-19 and great nights like Tuesday’s 9-4 win over the Braves seem few and far between. Sadly, I think it is going to get a little worse on Wednesday.
That’s because Eovaldi, the man who’s supposed to be this team’s most reliable starter, has quietly had a pretty bad season. I say quiet because his ERA remains below three runs, but the underlying numbers are pretty damning. He has allowed eight home runs in six starts, and multiple homers in three outings. The only start he managed to get through without a gopher ball was against the lowly Orioles.
With that, it’s not surprising to hear his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 23% of the league and his barrel rate in the bottom 16%. His strikeouts haven’t been nearly timely enough to mask these issues, and against a Braves team which is fifth in barrels per plate appearance, it could get ugly.
On the other side of things, Anderson has been decently effective for the Braves and has really only struggled in the walk department. The Red Sox have a 6% walk rate in the last two weeks and are sleepwalking at the plate in general. I think this one tilts heavily towards Atlanta.
Orioles vs. Cardinals
DJ James: The Orioles and Spenser Watkins will duel for the second game of a three-game set with Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals.
Mikolas has been phenomenal in the first month of the season. His xERA is 2.71 and he does not allow much hard contact at all. Watkins, on the other hand, has not been very encouraging, although he has posted a 3.22 ERA in the early going. Those numbers are relatively lucky.
The difference here is the Baltimore offense is on fire against right-handed pitching this month. They own the second-best wRC+ in the league at 156. This essentially means everyone in the lineup is hitting. Four hitters have posted 90 mph or more as an Average Exit Velocity in 2022, while three hitters have an xwOBA over .400. Three others have a .350+ xwOBA. This accounts for six of nine batters in the everyday lineup.
Now, the edge here is the Cardinals are one of the weakest hitting teams in the MLB. They rank dead last in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Percentage. This should provide a little help to Watkins, even if he has had some trouble in 2022.
Based on that, taking the Orioles on the moneyline has value. Play it to +160.
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