MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/18: Can Kyle Freeland Continue the Rockies’ Winning Streak?

Apr 18, 2019 11:31 AM EDT
Credit:

Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Freeland

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 18 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rockies-Phillies and Dodgers-Brewers matchups
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

On Wednesday, benches cleared between the Royals and White Sox after Brad Keller plunked Tim Anderson:

Anderson had pimped his home run off of Keller earlier in the game, and Keller decided to hit him with a well-placed, 92 mph fastball (Keller throws 94-95 mph normally) to start the bottom of the sixth inning in game tied at 2-2.

This is your reminder not to bet on the Royals, White Sox, or any teams that aren’t trying to win baseball games in 2019. If the Royals cared about winning this season, in the slightest, they wouldn’t risk losing a 2-2 game in order to give Tim Anderson a bruise on the bum.

Nevermind the fact that this is all incredibly stupid. A bat flip doesn’t harm anything except a pitcher’s confidence. A misplaced beanball can end a career.

This is a game, after all … isn’t it supposed to be fun? I say let the bats fly, and let pitcher egos die.


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday. It also went 1-0 against totals, with the projection nailing the Under 11 (9 runs vs. 9.2 projected) in the Rangers-Angels matchup.

My actual picks went 3-0-1, and I was up 1.74 U for the day.

It was also a net positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I lost out on six cents with Arizona’s moneyline (+147 to +153) but gained seven cents back with the Royals F5 line (-110 to -117), and two cents on Oakland’s moneyline (-110 to -112).

The total also dropped from 11 to 10.5 runs, with juice on the under (-115).


On Deck for Thursday, April 18

All odds as of Thursday morning

The model recommends one full-game moneyline, and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday. 

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