MLB Betting Tip: Find Value With Totals Immediately After the All-Star Break
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Rangers center fielder Joey Gallo
- MLB teams are hitting home runs at a record pace, making this the first season that it has been profitable to blindly bet overs in baseball.
- Using Bet Labs we explain why bettors should be careful wagering on overs in the first game after the All-Star break.
MLB teams have combined to hit 3,691 home runs this season. That’s 1.37 homers per game, which puts teams on pace for 6,668 dingers this season.
The record for moon shots in a year is 6,105 set in 2017. Only six teams have ever hit 250 or more long balls in a season, but this year at least 10 teams are on pace to top 250 home runs.
It is fair to say every night feels like a Home Run Derby in baseball this season and over bettors love it. Overs have been cashing at a historic pace so far in 2019.
Through the All-Star break, overs have a 51.3% win rate, winning 7.77 units. This is the first time in the Bet Labs database where it has been profitable to blindly bet overs.
The second half begins on Thursday with the Texas Rangers hosting the Houston Astros (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the rest of the league returns to action on Friday.
It is just a wild guess, but the over will likely be a popular play in these games. Unfortunately for recreational gamblers, it has not been profitable to bet the over in the first game after the All-Star break.
Since 2005, in the first game after the break the over has gone 96-108-5 (47.1%), which has cost a $100 bettor $1,508. Popular overs, those receiving more than 50% of tickets, have been even worse: 55-71-5 (43.7%).
Why have overs underperformed in this spot? My theory is that teams are able to start their best pitchers after the Midsummer Classic and have rested bullpens. Both should contribute to limiting the number of runs scored.
With the over not being profitable bettors can target the under, specifically unpopular unders in the first game after the break.
I’m not saying you can’t bet the over when action resumes — this is a small sample. Just don’t be surprised, even with teams smashing home runs at a record pace, if overs don’t cash on Thursday and Friday.