The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Wednesday, I preview Canada-Cuba, Italy-Mexico, and Dominican Republic-Venezuela, all of which have major implications for tournament seeding or advancement.
If you want my bets, make sure to follow me in the Action Network App, and if you want my projections for the 5 a.m. ET games, or any of the weekend WBC games, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Here are my World Baseball Classic Predictions and WBC picks for Wednesday, March 11.
World Baseball Classic Predictions for March 11
Canada vs. Cuba Picks
With a win, Canada has a chance to advance past the pool stage for the first time in six tries at the WBC, but since Puerto Rico (who Canada beat on Tuesday) finished pool play 3-1, they have qualified for the next round. If Cuba defeats Canada, they would advance as the second team from Pool A on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
So, regardless of Tuesday's upset over Puerto Rico, this game was always a win-or-go-home spot for Canada, but now they have a chance to win their pool, too.
Cuba's pitching is dependent on Livan Moinelo, the 2025 Pacific League MVP (12-3, 1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.40 xFIP) and top NPB closer Raidel Martinez (46 saves, 1.11 ERA, 1.76 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP, 1.76 xFIP). Beyond their contributions, Cuba's pitching staff has struggled (15 BB, 19 K), and their lineup has shown an undisciplined approach (28.2% K%) while swinging for the fences.
I was much higher than the futures market on Canada, and much lower on Cuba coming into the tournament, but I didn't factor into the schedule quirk that permitted Moinelo a second start in Pool Play.
As a result, while I set Canada as -172 favorites for this matchup, and would have made the line significantly higher without the presence of Livan Moinelo, who dominated Panama (3.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K) in a 3-1 Cuba win, I'd expect their chances to increase drastically after the first four innings, as the pitching gap narrows in the bullpens.
Cal Quantrill (career 4.84 xERA, 4.69 xFIP, 9.9% K-BB%) gets the start for Canada, ahead of a relatively fresh bullpen that used three pitchers (Jordan Balazovic, Logan S. Allen, and Brock Dykxhoorn) for three innings each on Tuesday, which somewhat negates the rest advantage for Cuba. Still, this game will be played at 3 p.m. ET, following a delayed Tuesday night start – which featured another brief mid-game rain delay – for Canada.
Canada has a number of patient hitters who would be well served to wait on Moinelo and his big breaking ball, while trying to reach his 65-pitch limit and get him out of the game before the 5th inning. However, even with Moinelo's suppression, Canada's lineup is still meaningfully better. Josh Naylor, Tyler O'Neill, and Edouard Julien should do damage once the Cuban pen takes over, and the projected offensive gap still favors Canada even once their shaky bullpen enters the game.
Depending upon your tournament futures portfolio, your betting approach for Wednesday's games should change, and if you followed my futures preview, you should be sitting on Canada at plus money to advance, and north of +300 to win Pool A, and those are now your moneyline tickets for this game.
As a result, if you don't have futures on Canada to advance or win Pool A, consider betting their moneyline to around -150, or wait for a better live number once Monielo leaves the game. If you do have futures, recognize that you have a significantly better number than the futures market suggested you would get in this spot; we planned for this exact situation, and I don't think there is a reason – absent substantial moneyline value – to double down on the same outcome.
Pick: Pass
Italy vs. Mexico Picks
It's ironic that unbeaten Italy, which just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in WBC history over the United States, could end up failing to third and failing to advance from Pool C if it both loses to Mexico and surrenders five runs or more.
USA WBC Tiebreaker Scenarios ⚾
• If Italy wins:
USA advances• If Mexico wins:
Mexico automatically advances
Italy advances if Mexico scores 4 runs or fewer
USA advances if Mexico scores 5 runs or more pic.twitter.com/rn3CYSvsQ4— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 11, 2026
Mexico has the rest advantage, and much better bullpen quality and depth; they were off on Tuesday while Italy used six arms in relief to seal their win over the United States, after deploying six relievers (including many of the same arms) in their weekend win over Great Britain. Their bullpen is MLB-caliber, but Mexico probably has four of the five most effective relief pitchers in this matchup.
Italy has the better starting pitcher, as I prefer Aaron Nola (4.08 FIP, 16.9% K-BB%) to Javier Assad (4.28 FIP, 10.9% K-BB%), and the lineups are fairly comparable; I only project Mexico about 11 points better in wOBA compared to Italy, which I believe has more team power.
In a one-game format, where teams are constantly changing pitchers, I'm going to lean toward the team likelier to hit more homers; that datapoint has led to a near 80% win rate in MLB playoff games. It's difficult to sustain a rally against good pitching, especially when you don't get more than one look against any pitcher, so homers tend to win out in tighter contests.
My model has Mexico at just -155 favorites (60.7% implied), even while giving them full credit for home-field advantage, but the market is more than 10% higher at -285 (74% implied), leaving value on the underdog Italians once again.
I would bet Italy down to around +170 if you don't have any futures tied to them, but reverting to my earlier take, if you already have futures exposure with an Italy to advance ticket north of +200 we don't necessarily have the best of the market here; you can find Italian moneyline prices higher than my +225 ticket (opened +240) around the market for the matchup with Mexico.
Either add slightly more on the moneyline (probably about one-tenth of a unit) to bring your position in line with the single-game payout, or ride the futures ticket at similar odds.
Despite the anticipated bullpen usage, my model also leans over in this game, setting the total closer to 8.5 than 7.5.
Pick: Italy (bet to +170 if you don't have futures) | Over 7.5 (bet to 8.5, -105)
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela Picks
What is effectively the Pool D title game between these South American powers is arguably the best game of the entire pool stage. Both teams are loaded with MLB All-Stars, and both will deploy their best available remaining arms in a game that determines quarterfinal seeding and opponent.
Sandy Alcántara (projected 3.97 FIP, 13.0% K-BB%) gets the start at his home park, loanDepot in Miami, giving the Dominican Republic a slight mound familiarity edge for the first four to five innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez (4.28 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%) counters for Venezuela with a full-strength bullpen behind him: Danny Palencia (3.68 FIP) and Eduard Bazardo (3.80), in particular, are rested after being held back from the Nicaragua game. The Dominican pen is deeper, but for some reason, Albert Pujols decided to deploy Gregory Soto and Carlos Estevez in a 10-1 win over Israel on the same day; both teams were off on Tuesday.
The primary difference in the matchup is the lineups: the Dominican Republic rates as my second-best offense in the tournament, while Venezuela is 4th, but there is more than a 10-point gap in projected wRC+ between the two, which is larger than my gap between Venezuela and Mexico, for instance.
This game is close enough that I don't see a strong moneyline edge on either side. I would lean to Venezuela at current prices, but I also gave out the Dominican Republic to win Pool D at -143, so we're ahead of market expectations with futures tickets on two of three games on Wednesday.
Still, while I lean toward the sides I originally bet futures on in the other games, I do think this line is a bit wide. And whether you have existing futures or not, I'd consider middleing the pool winner bet with a Venezuela spread bet, or wait for a peak moneyline price (north of +200) on the underdog closer to first pitch.
The total looks correct, juiced at 10.5 Over, or 11.5 or 11 to the Under.
Pick: Venezuela +2.5 Runs (bet to -133)
Zerillo's WBC Predictions & Picks for March 11
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- Italy/Mexico, Over 7.5 (-112, 0.5u), FanDuel; bet to 8.5 (-105)
- Venezuela +2.5 Runs (-110, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -133
