For Monday, July 21, I'm on five MLB home run props: Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Brent Rooker.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, July 21
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 21
Juan Soto (+375)
vs Angels (SP: LHP Tyler Anderson)
I'm liking the lefties today in a great spot vs. a reverse splits lefty.
Tyler Anderson has been absolutely crushed by lefty power this season as he's giving up a massive 2.36 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly ball numbers. The weather is a plus for hitting with WeatherEdge giving an 11.8% increase to homers over a 49-game sample size. While the wind blowing in from left field is a bit of a concern, it will impact righties more and the heat should make up for it.
Juan Soto has been great this season with 24 homers and great underlying numbers. I have the true odds of Soto homering today at around +300, making this a great EV bet.
Brandon Lowe (+400)
vs White Sox (SP: RHP Sean Burke)
This spot is absolutely fantastic for the Rays and their odds don't fully reflect that. The weather is a big plus for hitting with temperatures in the high 80s during the game and winds blowing out to right field.
Sean Burke has been crushed this season by power bats, giving up a 1.68 HR/9 to lefties and 1.29 HR/9 to righties, and grades out as a big plus matchup to both sides of the plate. Given the good matchup and that short, right-field porch I have the true odds on Brandon Lowe at around +300, making this a great EV bet.
Junior Caminero (+300)
vs White Sox (SP: RHP Sean Burke)
Most of what I wrote above for Brandon Lowe applies here as well.
Junior Caminero has been fantastic this season and I have the true odds of him homering today at +250, which makes this a great EV bet.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+350)
vs Giants (SP: RHP Hayden Birdsong)
This spot is great, and Ronald Acuna Jr. really isn't priced accordingly.
Hayden Birdsong hasn't been bad at suppressing righty power this season — giving up a low .76 HR/9 — but he's due for some massive regression and in his career he has given up a large 1.36 HR/9 to righties, despite playing in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league.
The weather is great today with temperatures in the mid 80s and wind blowing out to left field. Acuna has been one of the best home run hitters in the league this season and the price here just doesn't show that. I have the true odds on Acuna at under +300, making this a great EV bet.
Brent Rooker (+400)
at Rangers (SP: RHP Jack Leiter)
Brent Rooker has been in good form over the past month and the spot here is a good one.
Jack Leiter has been a plus matchup for righty power giving up a 1.29 HR/9 this season and a 1.51 HR/9 in his career. The ballpark is a bit of a downgrade, but the odds on Rooker are too high. I have the true odds on Rooker at around +350, making this a good EV bet.
