For Tuesday, August 5, I'm on three MLB home run props.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, August 5
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 5
Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+525)
Athletics vs Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET
This is a clear, "don't overthink it" spot.
Athletics' first baseman Nick Kurtz gets a matchup against MacKenzie Gore tonight, who is a lefty, but he's a reverse splits lefty and an above average matchup for lefty power.
We are getting one of the best home run hitters in the league in a plus-matchup at +525 here.
I have the true odds over 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+333)
Guardians vs Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Going hard on the Mets' power bats.
Allen has been much more reverse splits this season when it comes to power giving up 1.04 HR/9 to righties and 1.64 HR/9 to lefties, but he's due for some negative regression against righties, and his career numbers are around 1.4 HR/9 to both sides of the plate.
The weather is about neutral, but the odds are a bit too high.
I have the true odds on Soto around +275 today making this a great EV bet.
Logan O'Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+430)
Rays vs Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET
The Angels' righties are in a great spot today going up against Ryan Pepiot.
Pepiot has been crushed by righty power this season, giving up a large 1.85 HR/9.
He's a reverse splits righty with large fly ball numbers.
The weather is about neutral, but the odds are good here.
I have the true odds on O'Hoppe around +350 tonight, making this a great EV bet.
