For Tuesday, June 17, I'm on four MLB home run props: Corbin Carroll (against the Blue Jays), Brandon Lowe (against the Orioles), and Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki (against the Brewers).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, June 17
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 17
Corbin Caroll (+350)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I don't love Rogers Centre for power, but this spot is too good to pass up on.
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt started out the season great, but he has come back to earth and has been one of the best matchups for lefty power over the last few seasons.
Diamondbacks outfielder Carroll has been hammering the ball this season, with 20 homers in 70 games to go along with a 15.3% barrel rate.
I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Brandon Lowe (+420)
vs. Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)
The Rays' Brandon Lowe is having a good season — he has 14 home runs in 67 games and his underlying numbers are great as well.
He gets a plus matchup against the Orioles' Dean Kremer, who has been a gas can for lefty power this season, giving up 1.76 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
George M. Steinbrenner Field is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather should be great, with temps expected to be in the mid-80s and winds blowing out at 6 mph.
I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+400)
vs. Brewers (SP: RHP Chad Patrick)
We don't have a huge sample size of Brewers starter Chad Patrick in the majors, but so far, he's only given up one home run to lefties this season — that's likely going to change today.
Patrick has a razor-thin 2.2% HR/FB rate to lefties this season, and the underlying numbers show he should be a plus matchup for lefty power, with a 44.6% fly-ball rate and 32.4% hard-contact rate.
Some people are worried about possible rain, but RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth thinks it will be fine, and with temps expected to be in the mid-80s and winds blowing out at 8 mph, the ball should be flying.
Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a heater this season — with 18 HRs — and the underlying numbers have been great. I have the true odds here around +300.
Seiya Suzuki (+400)
vs. Brewers (SP: RHP Chad Patrick)
Seiya Suzuki has been great this season with 17 HRs in 68 games with an elite barrel rate of 17.7%
Patrick has been a plus matchup for righty power this season with a 1.36 HR/9.
I have the true odds on Suzuki 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
