MLB NRFI Picks: Friday Model Predictions

Thursday was another 1-2 day, with a frustrating two out home run in the bottom of the first standing between us and turning a profit.

We have three more Y/NRFI picks on Friday's slate of baseball.

MLB NRFI Picks For Friday, April 26

Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling vs. Corbin Burnes

One side of this game features Cy Young front runner Corbin Burnes taking on one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Oakland A's. That makes this close to a one-team NRFI, with just the Orioles to worry about. While there's some risk there, Stripling's first time through the order xFIP is a strong 3.47 this season, and while his overall numbers are bad, his ERA predictors are all considerably lower.

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Starting Pitchers: Graham Ashcraft vs. Nathan Eovaldi

The total in this game has been creeping up, with some books moving it to nine runs. We also have the inverse of the situation in the game above — Nathan Eovaldi has a higher xFIP his first time through the order than overall, and his ERA indicators point to some general regression as well.

Plus, we get the solid Rangers offense on the other side against a pitcher with an ERA in the fives, making this a solid play on both sides.

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Joe Musgrove

This is a tricky one, as Musgrove has struggled overall this season and Nola has bad first time through the order splits. However, evaluating both pitchers' 2023 and 2024 stats together, this stands out as an excellent pick. Nola's first time through the order struggles are mostly just noise, as he has excellent career numbers in that regard.

The market is expecting a low scoring game with the total falling to 7.5 at most books, so all things considered that makes the NRFI a strong value at -115.