I went 1-2 on Wednesday across three plus-money picks, though one of the losses was a half-unit bet.
It's a smaller slate on Thursday, but I've found value on two picks.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 5, 2025
Orioles vs. Mariners NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin vs. Bryan Woo
This is a solid price at Caesars (and also BetRivers) in a game with a 7.5-run total and two solid starting pitchers.
The Orioles' Zach Eflin has a 4.46 overall ERA, but his xERA is a full run lower. Going from Baltimore to Seattle is a 15% difference in favor of pitchers for run scoring, so he should perform closer to his expected ERA than his actual results.
Plus, his first-time-through-the-order xFIP is a solid 3.54, a bit lower than his full mark.
Bryan Woo is even better, with a 2.82 overall ERA. His underlying numbers are slightly worse, but that's likely a factor of playing in Seattle — which isn't changing today.
Both teams have some solid middle-of-the-order bats, but they have nobody in the top three we need to avoid.
Ideally we'll get a clean inning on Thursday.
Rangers vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jack Leiter vs. Ryan Pepiot
The betting market seems to agree with my view that both Jack Leiter and Ryan Pepiot are regression candidates. Both starters have ERAs in the mid threes, but they have xFIP numbers approaching 5.00, which suggests they've been more lucky than good.
This game has a nine-run total, so we're banking on some regression from one or both starters on Thursday. Plus, they both have first-time-through-the-order xFIP numbers in the 4.8 range.
The Rays' lineup is much stronger in the middle than at the top, so we're hoping the 4/5 hitters get a first inning chance.
Texas isn't great, but it has five straight above-average bats at the top of the lineup, so its also projecting well.
The Rays' temporary home stadium is also fairly hitter friendly, which is enough to push this one over the top.
