Italy will play the USA in the World Baseball Classic on Tuesday, March 10, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. The game will start at 9 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Team USA is a -1100 Moneyline favorite and an -5.5 (-105) run line favorite. The total is set at 11.5.
Here's my Italy vs USA prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 10, 2026.
Italy vs USA Prediction
- My Pick: United States -5.5
My Italy vs USA best bet is on Team USA to cover.
Italy vs USA Odds
| Italy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 11.5 -115 / -105 | +700 |
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 11.5 -115 / -105 | -1100 |
- Italy vs USA Moneyline: Italy +700, USA -1100
- Italy vs USA Run Line: Italy +5.5, USA -5.5
- Italy vs USA Total: 11.5
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Italy vs USA World Baseball Classic Picks
Italy Betting Preview
Italy makes its sixth World Baseball Classic appearance in 2026 and looks to improve on its best result, finishing in seventh place in the 2013 Classic. In its previous five classics, the Italians advanced beyond the pool stage just twice, also reaching the quarterfinals in the latest Classic in 2023.
Former Yankee catcher Francisco Cervelli takes over as manager for Italy in 2026 after MLB Hall-of-Fame member Mike Piazza stepped down follwoing the last Classic.
Alongside Cervelli, fellow Yankee catcher and perennial five-time All-Star Jorge Posada is on the Italian coaching staff as well, serving as a hitting coach.
Italy ranks ninth in the futures market at +8000 to win the 2026 Classic, and trails just the United States with a +2200 price to win its Pool B outright. Cervelli’s club is projected to make its third WBC quarterfinal appearance, ranking ahead of Pool B foes Mexico, Brazil, and Great Britain, at +200 to advance.
Cervelli’s club has high hopes in 2026, having recruited several big hitters from the MLB, including Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone, Cardinals utility player Thomas Saggesse, and former Marlins infielder Jon Berti.
Perhaps the biggest addition to Italy’s 2026 Classic roster is the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, the Royals’ Jac Caglione.
Also featuring some solid hitters from the top Italian league in Serie A1, Italy is definitely a sleeper team to look out for to make a run in the 2026 WBC.
Cervelli did a stellar job putting together his pitching staff for this year’s Classic as well, recruiting some big arms from the MLB. Phillies All-Star starting pitcher Aaron Nola surely looks to be the ace for this Italian club, with Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen in the two-hole.
MLB veteran reliever Adam Ottavino was a massive addition to Italy’s bullpen, and definitely looks to be the front-runner for the team’s closer position.
The reliever has had a solid professional career with four MLB teams over 15 years. Ottavino was a notable snub from the 2018 All-Star game and is often praised for his sharp-breaking slider.
In an otherwise rather weak Pool B, Italy’s next contest with the United States is the sole matchup that Cervelli’s club is listed as an underdog to prevail.
USA Betting Preview
After an extremely disappointing result in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, with the United States falling to Japan 3-2 in the championship game, the Americans are undoubtedly out for revenge in the 2026 Classic.
The United States opened as a -110 favorite in the futures market to win the 2026 WBC, listed well ahead of the reigning-champion Japanese squad, priced at +340 to go back-to-back.
Former Cubs infielder Mark DeRosa is in his second stint as manager for the United States team, leading the Americans to a silver medal in 2023.
Like the Dominican Republic, the United States has just one WBC title, compared to Japan’s three, which definitely adds an extremely compelling narrative about which of the three top-dogs will reign supreme in 2026.
The Americans got a pretty favorable draw in 2026, with Italy likely the sole club in Pool B with a remote chance to challenge the United States.
DeRosa’s team is listed as a steep -800 favorite to win Pool B, and post an insane -7000 price to advance beyond the Pool stage. The United States has advanced in each of its five previous Classics and will undoubtedly make it six-for-six in the 2026 edition.
From top to bottom, the United States lineup boasts incredible firepower and likely has a case for the best roster ever assembled at this event.
Royals All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr bats lead-off, followed by some of the biggest bats in the game, featuring the likes of Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, and Cal Raleigh.
At the bottom of the order, DeRosa has the luxury of being able to pick and choose which hitters to put in based on the pitching matchup. The United States bench has exceptional depth and versatility, with Gunnar Henderson, Roman Anthony, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Byron Buxton, and Bryce Turang to name a few.
It should come as no surprise that the United States’ pitching staff is just as elite, with Giants All-Star Logan Webb headlining a stacked rotation. Webb took the bump in game 1 in a 15-5 United States victory over Brazil in its first matchup in Pool B.
2025 AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal took the mound in Game 2, and the Tigers’ ace dazzled in a 9-1 win over Great Britain.
A generational talent like the Pirates' Paul Skenes may start Tuesday’s matchup with Italy if he is not used in the next game versus Mexico.
Future Hall-of-Fame starter Clayton Kershaw is available to take the bump in DeRosa’s rotation as well.
How To Bet My Italy vs USA Pick
Italy is undoubtedly the most difficult matchup for the United States in Pool B after DeRosa’s team has run through its first few opponents with ease.
Moreover, there remains a massive talent gap between Italy and an American roster oozing with talent across the diamond.
I am definitely not looking to over-complicate what should be another convincing victory for the United States.
Pick: United States -5.5
