MLB Odds & Best Bets: Our Top 3 Picks for Wednesday, Including Astros vs. Angels & Dodgers vs. Cardinals (July 13)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Altuve.
- Wednesday's MLB slate is packed with 16 games taking place, including a Mariners vs. Nationals doubleheader.
- Our staff found betting value in four games: Phillies vs. Blue Jays, Dodgers vs. Cardinals, A's vs. Rangers and Astros vs. Angels.
- Check out all four of our best bets and breakdowns for Wednesday's MLB games below.
Wednesday's MLB slate is a big one, as we have 16 games on the docket.
To make things even better our staff has found betting value on four games from tonight's slate: Phillies vs. Blue Jays, Dodgers vs. Cardinals, Athletics vs. Rangers and Astros vs. Angels.
Check out all four picks and breakdowns below, and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Kenny Ducey: I’m going to do something a little wild today: bet on the Phillies despite the fact they’re missing two of their best hitters due to their vaccination status.
The fact of the matter is that Philadelphia came so close to upsetting Toronto on Tuesday, thanks to six hits from the bottom five of the order. The top four of the order, headlined by Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos? Just one hit.
Given what we’re seeing from the weaker hitters here, I have confidence in things turning around against Ross Stripling. The veteran right-hander owns a 4.17 xERA with a very sour .400 xwOBA on contact this season, giving up a ball hit at least 95 MPH on nearly 40% of all batted balls.
Stripling largely pitches to contact with a below-average 20% strikeout rate, which is great news considering the Phillies struck out 14 times on Thursday.
On top of this all, the Blue Jays own just a 105 wRC+ over the last week and a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks. They’ve been incredibly average and will have to compete against one of the strongest pitchers in the National League (and a player who got snubbed from the All-Star team), Zack Wheeler.
I think this has upset written all over it.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
DJ James: Adam Wainwright has been feasting on good fortune for much of this season. He owns a 3.15 ERA against a 4.43 xERA.
However, he doesn't induce a ton of hard contact, mainly due to how fast he throws. That said, his opponent will be Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.
Gonsolin has been a little lucky as well, but his 2.89 xERA and 1.62 ERA are still both stellar. He will keep the Cardinal bats quiet on Wednesday.
Now, in the last month, both of these teams have been above the 100 wRC+ mark, and they've done their fair share of damage off of righties. However, with the consistency of both of these pitchers on the hill, they should be able to go under the total, at least on the side of St. Louis.
The kicker in this game is that the Cardinals and Dodger both boast a top-six xFIP in the MLB in the last month. They should have more than enough to hold their opponent in check late in the game.
Take the under in this one from 8 (-105), and play it to 7.5 (-120).
Athletics vs. Rangers
Jules Posner: After a high-scoring extra-inning affair, the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers may find themselves in the midst of a pitcher's duel Wednesday night.
The A's lone All-Star representative, Paul Blackburn, will take the mound against Jon Gray, and both pitchers are pitching in their stronger split situations.
Blackburn has amassed a 1.28 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in 10 road starts this season. He did get roughed up in his last start against the Astros, but now that he's back on the road, it should be safe to trust Blackburn to continue his solid road work.
He's also taking on an offense that has been in the bottom-third of teams in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home this season.
The Rangers offense has posted a 112 wRC+ at home against RHP over the past couple of weeks, but Blackburn may neutralize that recent uptick.
On the other side, Gray brings a 3.80 ERA into today's matchup, but he has a 2.15 FIP and a 2.53 xFIP at home this season. Gray should have a solid opportunity to improve on his home ERA against an A's offense that's below league average on the road against RHP this season.
The total for the first five innings is set at 4 runs at -120 odds — a reasonable value for what could be a good pitching matchup.
Both bullpens have had their issues this season — especially the A's— so this is a solid way to get the same value as a full game total without having to sweat the pens.
Play this to -130 or better, but playing it at 3.5 runs is incredibly risky.
Astros vs. Angels
Charlie DiSturco: Anytime Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Angels, you’re going to get solid value from fading the superstar. Wednesday night might be my favorite spot yet as Ohtani faces the Houston Astros for a third time this season.
Yes, Ohtani has been incredible to date. He hasn’t given up an earned run in over a month, and his xERA has dropped to 2.62.
But it’s not what he’s doing well, but rather what the Angels are not. And that’s hitting.
Over the last two weeks, the Angels rank dead last in wRC+, wOBA and isolated power. They're striking out about once every three at-bats and have just one win over their last 10 games.
Tack on the fact that Mike Trout left last night with a back injury and will likely miss Wednesday night’s matchup, and this makes the Astros even more appealing as an underdog.
Cristian Javier takes the mound for Houston, and he’s really broken out in 2022. The right-hander has a 2.47 xERA, while opponents have just a .175 xBA. Javier owns an elite 34.1% strikeout rate — the perfect recipe for success against a slumping Angels squad.
The Astros offense has also been red-hot in July. They sit second in both wRC+ and wOBA and first in both isolated power and walk rate. They're disciplined and won't make many mistakes at the plate.
All this is to say I think Houston has a huge upper hand against Ohtani. It has the clear advantage both at the plate and in the pen — No. 1 bullpen ERA versus LAA’s 20th — and I don’t think the pitching matchup is that far apart, either.
The line has already moved significantly toward Houston, and I don’t think it’ll stop anytime soon. Grab the Astros as underdogs on Wednesday night.
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