MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Blue Jays vs. Guardians & Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (May 7)
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- After six games were postponed on Friday, Saturday's MLB slate has become loaded with three doubleheaders and plenty of other action.
- Our staff cam through with three best bets for Saturday, including Blue Jays vs. Guardians, Mets vs. Phillies and Rockies vs. Diamondbacks.
- Check out all three picks and betting breakdowns for Saturday's MLB games below.
After a Friday that saw a six games get postponed, we have a loaded slate on Saturday.
Because so many games were postponed, we also have three sets of doubleheaders, including Blue Jays vs. Guardians, Reds vs. Pirates and Cubs vs. Dodgers.
Our staff came through with three best bets for Saturday’s MLB games, including one from the Toronto-Cleveland doubleheader.
Check out all three picks below, and be sure to check back for plenty of day baseball tomorrow.
MLB Odds & Picks
Blue Jays vs. Guardians (Game 1)
Anthony Dabbundo: Two aces take the mound on Saturday afternoon in a makeup game in Cleveland as Kevin Gausman takes on Shane Bieber, but I’m betting on offense and going contrarian against two of the best starters in the American League.
Bieber is a pitcher I’ve been skeptical of at the beginning of the season, and although his results have been impressive, his underlying process and metrics are significantly less impressive.
Bieber’s fastball velocity is down more than 1.5 mph from last season’s peak and has not recovered as he’s made more and more starts this season. His curveball spin rate is down, he’s generating fewer swings and misses and his stuff+ rating, per Eno Sarris of the Athletic, is way down to 90.3, with 100 being average.
The Bieber fades haven’t exactly come off to this point, but I’m expecting major regression for Bieber in the coming weeks. He’s faced the Royals, Reds, Athletics and injury-plagued White Sox thus far this year, and this is a big step up in the lineup.
As impressive as Gausman has been for Toronto this year, I also don’t expect him to maintain a 0% HR rate and not walk a batter all season.
Cleveland doesn’t strike out and has an excellent chase rate, and that will make this a more difficult matchup for the Jays’ starter as well.
Mets vs. Phillies
Charlie DiSturco: To me, the total for this Saturday evening National League East bout is too low.
While Gibson has been solid to start the season, he pitches to contact and has been struggling with his walks. He now draws a red-hot and confident Mets offense that has already seen him once before, and they should get to him early.
Tack on the fact that Philadelphia is seeing Scherzer for the third time this season just one month in, and I think the sense of familiarity should result in yet another high-scoring affair. In both of Scherzer’s prior starts, the Mets and Phillies have combined for 15 or more runs.
I do think the Mets hold the upper hand in this matchup, but I’m not confident enough to take a side here. Instead, I think we’re getting a discount on the over seven.
While unders ran rampant early on in the season, totals have begun to even out over the last couple of weeks.
This is a perfect opportunity to hop on an over and back two offenses that have been hitting the ball well against pitchers they’ve already seen before this season.
Back the over at Citizens Bank Park in this division rivalry that should be one of the most entertaining games on the MLB slate.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
DJ James: Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies will face Zach Davies and the Arizona Diamondbacks at another hitter-friendly ballpark in Chase Field.
Davies has been shockingly consistent this season. He owns a 3.89 xERA, but this should come back to earth a bit.
He doesn’t strike anyone out, ranking in the 19th percentile in strikeout rate. The Rockies rank sixth in the strikeouts. This should play into their hands well.
The top of the Rockies lineup will do some expected damage against righties, too. They have six batters who sit over .340 xwOBA and three over .400 — and that doesn’t include Kris Bryant.
Once Davies exits the game, Arizona has barely been able to hold leads this season. It ranks dead last in xFIP. J.B. Wendelken, Luke Weaver and Sean Poppen are all on the injured list. The bullpen is depleted, and the Rockies should take advantage.
On the hitting side of things, Arizona is one of the worst teams when it comes to hitting lefties (69 wRC+). Freeland will give the D-backs a litany of issues. He’s not necessarily the strongest of pitchers, but he won’t walk batters at least. This should keep Colorado in the ball game.
Now, the Rockies have a rough bullpen, too, but at least they’re healthy for the most part. They have a slight edge in that regard.
Take the Rockies at -110, and play to -125. There’s some value here with how poorly Arizona has performed against southpaws.
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