MLB Odds, Picks | Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Giants & More (Tuesday, August 1)
Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
The MLB trade deadline will take center stage on Tuesday, but there's actual baseball to be played tonight and plenty of betting value on the board.
Dive in below to get MLB odds, picks and best bets for Tuesday.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Rays vs. Yankees
By Sean Zerillo
Although Carlos Rodon (5.75 ERA, 5.82 xERA) has struggled in his first four starts since signing a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees, the lefty might have found his form in his last start, posting a 115 Stuff+ rating (125 slider, 111 fastball).
It was more comparable to his 2022 form (114 Stuff+; 123 slider, 113 fastball) than his level over the first three starts of the season (102 Stuff+, 88 Location+).
One can expect Rodon’s ERA to align closer to his projected FIP Range (between 3.07 to 3.93) over the remainder of the season, especially if he can mimic his Stuff+ numbers from last year.
The Rays have a top-three offense against right-handed and left-handed pitching this season, but since the start of June, they rank 30th against left-handed pitching, with a 71 wrC+.
I’ve been high on Zach Eflin (3.12 xERA, 105 Pitching+) all season, and I'm projecting just 7.7 runs in this matchup. Bet Under 8.5 to -122 or Under 8 to -103.
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A big reason as to why I like the under 8.5 in this matchup is the bullpen usage from the series opener.
Despite Jhony Brito’s struggles, New York was able to use him and Domingo German across a full nine innings. The bullpen was given a day off, and full availability is a huge plus. The Yankees’ bullpen is top-10 in xFIP, with Clay Holmes sitting among the best relievers in baseball over the last month-plus.
Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees on Tuesday night, and while he’s struggled in his return from injury — 13 runs (4 HRs) in 20 1/3 innings — the southpaw enters off his best outing against the Mets.
I would expect more of that from Rodon going forward.
It’s also important to note — as my colleague Zerillo wrote — that since the beginning of June, the Rays are 30th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Eflin gets the call on Tuesday for Tampa, and he’s been incredibly impressive in his first season with the team. The right-hander boasts a career-best 3.12 xERA with an elite 3.7 BB%. Despite an increase in barrels, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate rise nearly 5% from last season and his ground-ball rate has reached 51.7%, also a career mark.
Tampa only used Robert Stephenson and Pete Fairbanks on Monday night, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either used again on a back-to-back. Like New York, they’re a well-rested pen, and aside from Aaron Judge, the Yanks’ offense has ranked among the worst in baseball.
Expect another low-scoring game between two AL East rivals, as the Rays look to jump back into first place in the division, while the Yankees look to make a playoff push.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
By D.J. James
Both the Giants and Diamondbacks were active before the trade deadline on Monday.
Going into Tuesday’s game, fans get to see quite an underrated pitching matchup between Alex Cobb and Zac Gallen.
Cobb has a 2.42 ERA this month in over 22 1/3 innings pitched. However, on the season, he's been fortunate with a 2.97 ERA against a 4.37 xERA. His average exit velocity is 89.5 mph, while his hard-hit rate is 44.1%, up 3% from 2022. The regression monster will eventually come for the veteran right-hander.
Gallen also allows hard contact. His average exit velocity is 91.2 mph, while his hard-hit rate is 44.7%, up from 36.1% in 2022.
That said, he strikes out 26.1% of hitters with a 5.1% walk rate. This is why his 3.36 ERA is not exceptionally lower than his 3.86 xERA. He'll negatively regress — just given the hard contact — but his other peripherals are encouraging.
In addition, the Diamondbacks added Paul Sewald from the Mariners, so they get a key piece in the relief corps. The bullpen was struggling immensely this month with a 4.77 xFIP. San Francisco’s bullpen xFIP in July is 4.33 and ranks 15th in MLB.
Finally, the D-Backs have shown at least a little with the sticks. Yes, the Giants added A.J. Pollock and Mark Mathias, but this will not push them over the edge.
On the month, San Francisco has an 82 wRC+ against Arizona’s 95 wRC+. Adding Jace Peterson is a nice bonus.
Take Arizona from -106, and play it to -130.