MLB Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Mariners vs. Twins, Reds vs. Brewers & More (Tuesday, July 25)
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
Every team in the league is in action on Tuesday, including key divisional battles between the Reds and Brewers and the Rangers and Astros, and a marquee series between the Blue Jays and Dodgers.
But in this piece, our experts are not targeting the biggest games. Instead, they're searching for MLB odds and picks that can provide you best bets — and the best betting value — for Tuesday's slate, even if that includes Reds vs. Brewers.
So, dive in below and get set for the MLB schedule on Tuesday, July 25.
Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Mets vs. Yankees
By D.J. James
Domingo Germán induces some weak contact (74th percentile in average exit velocity), but his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom half of the league.
His opponent will be Justin Verlander and the Mets on Tuesday. Verlander has allowed some hard contact this season. He ranks in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate. His ERA is 3.47 against a 3.39 xERA, so his results have been in line with expectations.
This definitely beats Germán’s (4.51 ERA, 4.01 xERA).
In addition, the Yankees have a 93 wRC+ off of righties this month, with a 9.9% walk rate and .695 OPS.
The Mets have a 123 wRC+ off of righties this month, with a 9.3% walk rate and .801 OPS.
The power numbers here are staggering in comparison. The Mets have seven bats above a .330 xwOBA. The Yankees have five bats above that mark. The Mets should take care of business with the weaker starter on the opposing mound.
In relief, the Mets have a 4.49 xFIP, while the Yankees have a 4.95 xFIP in July. This is an edge to the team from Queens.
Germán’s numbers overall are a tad skewed because of that perfect game. With that being the case, take the Mets. They should be favored by more, and bet it to -160. They're the better team with Verlander toeing the rubber.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Twins
This is a rematch of the pitching matchup that just played out in Seattle on Thursday. George Kirby outdueled Pablo Lopez on that day, with no runs allowed and 10 strikeouts as the Mariners won 5-0 at home to split their four-game series.
I bet the Twins that day, and I'm doing so again on Tuesday night, this time in Minnesota.
There's not much of a difference in the projections between Kirby and Lopez — Lopez has a much higher strikeout rate, but Kirby has the lowest walk rate in MLB and possesses elite command.
The rest of the season projections based on Pitching+ and The BAT have them within a few tenths of a run per nine innings pitched.
The edge for Minnesota comes in the form of home field advantage and a rested and available Jhoan Duran. He didn't pitch in Monday night's extra-inning contest and will be available on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Mariners used Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz.
The Twins also have the better offensive numbers, especially with Jarred Kelenic out for Seattle due to injury. Both offenses strike out at among the highest rate in baseball, but Minnesota has a lot more slugging and power against right-handed pitching in its projected lineup.
I'd bet Minnesota at -120 or better.
Reds vs. Brewers
Corbin Burnes looks like himself again.
The former Cy Young winner has the second-highest Stuff+ rating of any starting pitcher over the past 30 days (130, second only to Graham Ashcraft’s 132). He has a ridiculous 14.3% swinging-strike rate during the span.
His cutter-curveball mix is obliterating batters. Look at what he did to the Phillies five days ago:
Corbin Burnes, 4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/DNX4Tw586H
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2023
Corbin Burnes, 9th and 10th Ks thru 8.
69% whiff rate on his CB today. pic.twitter.com/gp00euvpEM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2023
As much as I love Andrew Abbott — and his super-high-spinny curveball — I think he’s overperforming and overvalued. He has a 95.5% strand rate (after posting a 94.2% strand rate in Triple-A) and an xERA 1.33 runs higher than his ERA.
If you believe in the Stuff+ model – as I do – Abbott checks in with an 87 mark and zero plus pitches over the past 30 days.
Ultimately, I’m looking to buy Burnes stock, and I’m fine doing it by fading Abbott stock.
The Brewers check in with a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last month (i.e., Abbott), while the Reds boast an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (i.e., Burnes). So, the Brew Crew have that going for them.
And, don’t look now, but Devin Williams and the Brewers have been the best bullpen in baseball over the past fortnight (0.88 ERA, .167 wOBA, 2.24 xFIP, 39.9% Chase rate).
The Brewers snapped Cincy’s win streak on Monday. Bank on the Brewers winning the series on Tuesday.