Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Odds & Picks: Expect Offenses To Shine in NL West Affair (Tuesday, April 13)

Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds

The Los Angeles Dodgers continued their hot start to the season Monday with its 3-0 victory over the Washington Nationals, improving their record to an impressive 8-2 on the season.

Offensively, the Dodgers were paced by a strong performance from Zach McKinstry, who drove in three runs — including a two-run home run — that turned out to be the difference in the game.

Meanwhile, the Rockies had a much-needed off day after starting the season at just 3-7 overall.

In a four-game series where these teams met earlier this month, we saw a number of high-scoring affairs that featured an average of 11.75 runs per game. Will that pace continue in this matchup at Dodgers Stadium?

Colorado Rockies

Starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela will get the nod for the Rockies. Through two starts this season, Senzatela has struggled a bit, recording a 5.56 ERA and just 3.97 K/9 over 11 1/3 innings.

While his 4.10 xFIP is more than a run below his ERA (typically an indicator that he has been a bit unlucky so far this season), his strikeouts are also down substantially when compared to his career average of 6.07 K/9. While it’s still too early in the season to determine if there's something substantial behind this drop, he’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher.

He won’t get much of a break against a powerful Dodgers lineup that hits right-handed pitching exceptionally well. Last season, they were one of the best teams in baseball against righties, smashing a .355 wOBA, .240 ISO and 126 wRC+ in such situations. They’ve been even better in 2021 with a .379 wOBA and 144 wRC+ so far this season.

The Rockies bullpen has also struggled mightily thus far. Through 43 1/3 innings, they’ve compiled a 5.04 xFIP, which is currently the second-worst mark in the league.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

After a so-so start to the 2021 season, Trevor Bauer will get the start for the Dodgers. While Bauer has been dominant early in games over his first two starts, he’s seen some trouble in later innings once the lineup turns over for a third time.

In fact, in his first start this season against this same team, he blanked them for the first six innings before allowing four earned runs in the seventh inning.

Despite their success against Bauer in that seventh inning, the Rockies have struggled against righties so far, hitting to substandard .283 against them. Their track record in 2020 was not much better. During that season, Colorado had a .305 team wOBA (sixth worst in MLB) and a .149 team ISO (eighth worst) against right-handed pitching.

The Dodgers will be looking for length out of Bauer again in this game, as their bullpen has struggled, amassing a 4.80 xFIP over 27 innings pitched.

Rockies-Dodgers Pick

While Bauer has had a good deal of early success in games he's started, his late-inning troubles, coupled with a suspect Dodgers bullpen, have left the door open for teams to score runs in bunches. The Rockies offense isn’t the most prolific, but has shown a penchant to run up the scoreboard when the situation presents itself.

On the other side, Senzatela has struggled to find his form. He now gets the unenviable task of facing a Dodgers lineup that hits right-handed pitching well. If he finds trouble again, the Rockies will have to turn to a bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball to start the season.

That said, I’m comfortably backing over 8 runs in this game as my top pick, and would play it up to 9 runs.

Pick: Total Over 8 (play up to nine runs)