MLB Odds & Picks: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Preview (Friday, Sept. 4)

Rockies vs. Dodgers Betting Odds

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The Dodgers are red-hot right now. Winners of their last five games, they’re also 8-2 in their last 10.

On Friday night they’ll welcome to L.A. the Colorado Rockies, who are trying to hold on to the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Colorado will send right-hander Antonio Senzatela to the mound with hopes that this L.A. trip will be better than the last one where they got swept in three games.

The Dodgers will counter with second-year pitcher Dustin May. Dodger Stadium has been somewhat of a bugaboo for this Rockies team, as they’ve won only one game there in 17 tries since July in 2018 and tonight’s matchup doesn't figure to get any easier.

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Colorado Rockies

Senzatela has had a good season thus far based on traditional metrics. He’s 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a solid 1.11 WHIP.

But his 4.27 FIP is almost a full-run higher than his ERA but in this case that’s mainly the result of a lower strikeout rate (5.82 K/9). He’s allowing 1.25 home runs per nine innings and has a 1.45 BB/9 ratio. All in all, I’d say he’s doing pretty good so far as long as he’s not facing the Dodgers.

Against Los Angeles, he’s 2-3 with a 7.04 ERA in eight appearances. He last faced them almost two weeks ago in L.A. and got carried out of the stadium after allowing four home runs in a Rockies 11-3 loss. He’ll need to be better tonight when he faces a Dodgers lineup that has a .306 /.382 /.612 slash line against him with seven home runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Opposing Senzatela will be Dustin May, or Big Red, as he’s affectionately called. May is 1-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His only appearance against the Rockies came during their last visit to L.A in August. May threw five innings of one-run ball before departing with the score knotted 1-1.

May’s 4.16 FIP is higher than his ERA and suggests he could be in line for some regression. Yet, when I look at his advanced metrics, they tend to disagree. He’s walking 2.31 batters per nine innings and his HR/9 ratio is only 1.03.

When you look at his batting average against, hitters are only hitting .241 against him and on balls put in play they’re hitting .264. The difference between the two is negligible at best. With his 1.17 WHIP, May is doing a good job of keeping runners off base and when they do get on, he’s leaving 85% of them stranded.

Betting Analysis

DraftKings is offering the Dodgers as a favorite at the hefty price of -250. I mentioned that going back to July 2018, the Rockies have only won one game at Chavez Ravine. They've played 17 games there since then and are 1-16 for a loss of 12.5 units.

I know I can get 2-1 on my money with the Rockies in this spot but I don't want anything to do with the dog here. I queried how Senzatela's teams have done on the road at Dodger Stadium and they're yet to win a game. In four starts, they're 0-4.

If I were looking to play L.A. here, I'd take a shot at a prop of them to score first and win the game at +125. This dramatically cuts down my juice and even lets me grab the Dodgers at a plus price.

Two other plays I would also consider would be the Dodgers team total over 5.5 runs  and the Dodgers run line at -120. However, both plays are unconventional for me and in this spot, I'd prefer to pass on this game and seek value elsewhere.

Lean: Dodgers to Score 1st and Win (+125)

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