MLB Odds, Picks & Preview: Cubs Keep Things Rolling vs. Reds (Monday, July 27)

Cubs vs. Reds Odds

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The Chicago Cubs head to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in a National League Central matchup.

Monday’s matchup will feature two left-handed pitchers with the Cubs sending out Jon Lester and the Reds countering with Wade Miley.

The Cubs come in as winners of two out of three against the Milwaukee Brewers, while the Reds could only garner one win in their series against the Detroit Tigers.

Cubs

The Cubs didn’t make many offseason moves as far as player personnel but they did find themselves a new manager in David Ross.

As a former catcher and two-time World Series winner, Ross has the intangibles to get the best out of this Cubs team after a lackluster 2019 campaign.

With the games coming fast and quick in this shortened season, I give Ross the edge in getting his team ready to play and take on a divisional foe in the Cincinnati Reds.

Reds

The Reds are projected as a possible playoff contender this year. PointsBet set their team total at 31.5 for the 60-game season. That’s a 52.5 win percentage which is six percentage points higher than their finish in 2019 (75-87, 46.3%).

Call me crazy, but I’m going to have to see it on the field before I go all-in on the Cincinnati Reds. Losing two out of three home games to the rebuilding Detroit Tigers over the weekend wasn’t exactly a step in the right direction.

Line Movement

PointsBet opened the visiting Cubs as a short underdog (+100) against the Reds. I was already leaning towards backing the Cubs but I wanted to see how the betting markets were reacting to this matchup.

Since this line was posted, a steady stream of Cubs money has come in on the away side, flipping them from dog to favorite. Chicago is now as high as -120.

Our Pick

The Chicago Cubs have done well with Jon Lester on the mound in Cincinnati. Chicago is 7-2 in those starts for a return of 3.92 units. The Reds are also 2-7 their last nine games when opposed by a starting left-handed pitcher.

The third base coaches could be waving a lot of runners in to score as the over is 7-1-1 in this spot.

My model favors the Cubs in this matchup and projects their expected odds at -123. With the current number hovering around -120, I like the Cubs to keep rolling in Queens City.

The Pick: Cubs -120 (up to -135)

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