The Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets on May 10, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Mets are -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are -112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
Our Mets vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | -104 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | -112 |
- Mets vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Mets -104, Diamondbacks -112
- Mets vs Diamondbacks over/under: 8.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Mets vs Diamondbacks spread: Mets -1.5 (+154), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-182)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| RHP Huascar Brazoban (NYM) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 3-0 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.53/2.79 | ERA / xERA | 2.50/4.71 |
| 3.30/3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.42/4.64 |
| 13.0% | K-BB% | 5.9% |
| 55.1% | GB% | 44.2% |
| .229 | BABIP | .239 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
The final chapter of this three-game set at Chase Field unfolds on Sunday afternoon as the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets battle for the series victory.
Both squads have struggled to find consistent footing early this season, with New York sitting at 15-24 and Arizona holding an 18-20 record.
The Mets managed a 3-1 victory in the opener, but the Diamondbacks answered back with a narrow 2-1 win on Saturday, setting the stage for a high-stakes rubber match in Phoenix.
Pitching will be at the forefront today, as the Mets turn to Huascar Brazoban for his second start of the campaign.
Brazoban has been excellent in his limited opportunities, posting a 1.53 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 17 2/3 innings. While he primarily served as a reliever last year, he did open three games in 2025, and New York’s sixth-ranked team ERA in the National League suggests their staff remains a competitive unit despite the team's overall record.
Arizona counters with veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been a pillar of stability for the Diamondbacks rotation.
Rodriguez enters with a perfect 3-0 record and a 2.50 ERA, and the team has won five consecutive games in which he has started. Interestingly, this streak began on April 9 against these very same Mets.
Arizona’s offense ranks ninth in the majors in slugging percentage, but they have found runs hard to come by in this specific series, managing just three total runs over the first two games.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
When looking at the total for this matchup, the most compelling evidence points toward the under 8.5. This play is supported by the "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games" system developed by Evan Abrams.
This specific model identifies regular-season matchups where both teams are heading into the second or later game of a series after a significant offensive drought.
Specifically, it targets situations where the market might overcorrect or fail to account for continued offensive stagnation after teams have posted minimal runs in their previous outings.
Following back-to-back games that saw final scores of 3-1 and 2-1, both the Mets and Diamondbacks are firmly entrenched in a low-scoring rhythm.
The Abrams system suggests that these slow-paced, low-output environments tend to persist rather than bounce back immediately.
Given that Eduardo Rodriguez has already neutralized the New York bats once this season and Huascar Brazoban has been highly efficient at limiting baserunners, a breakout offensive performance from either side seems unlikely.
Expect the pitching to remain ahead of the hitters and the final tally to stay well below the 8.5-run threshold.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
