Marlins vs. Braves MLB Odds & Picks: Scoring Will Settle Down in Atlanta (Wednesday, April 14)

Marlins vs. Braves MLB Odds & Picks: Scoring Will Settle Down in Atlanta (Wednesday, April 14) article feature image
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David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

  • Atlanta and Miami combined for 22 runs in the Marlins' 14-8 victory on Tuesday.
  • The Braves are sending one of baseball's best pitchers in Charlie Morton to the mound.
  • Mike Vitanza expects both offenses to come back to Earth on Wednesday.

Marlins vs. Braves Odds

Marlins Odds +205
Braves Odds -250
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:20 p.m. ET
TV MLBTV
Odds as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings.

The Miami Marlins were firing on all cylinders Tuesday, racking up 14 runs en route to a 14-8 victory over the Atlanta Braves.

They were paced by a strong performance from Adam Duvall, who hit two home runs and drove in seven in a career performance against his former team. Brian Anderson also homered for the Marlins, who have won three games in a row.

Meanwhile, the Braves received big efforts from Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies in defeat. Ozuna hit a two-run homer in the first and added two additional hits, while Albies also had a multi-hit effort that included a solo home run.

Can these two teams keep up the torrid run-scoring pace Wednesday or will we see a much closer affair with the pitchers delivering better efforts?

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Miami Marlins

Nick Neidert will take the hill for the Marlins. He performed well in his first of the season, allowing just one earned run and striking out three over 4 1/3 innings. While that performance was encouraging, he hasn’t found much success above the AA level. In 2020, he pitched to a 7.00 xFIP for the Marlins AAA affiliate and was just mediocre when called up to the big-league level.

In 8 1/3 innings with the Marlins last season, he compiled a 4.51 FIP and struck out batters at a low 4.32 K/9 clip. However, he does have only 12 1/3 big-league innings under his belt, including his appearance last week.

He’ll get a timely start against a Braves team that has struggled overall so far against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .297 wOBA and 84 wRC+ this season. In fact, Ronald Acuna Jr. is the only Braves player thus far to find any kind of success at plate. In 10 games so far, he’s hitting to a .559 wOBA with four home runs and eight runs batted in.

The Marlines bullpen, while they have not been lights out by any means, has been serviceable when called upon, allowing a 4.59 xFIP over 34 2/3 innings.

Atlanta Braves

After a strong 2020 campaign with the Tampa Bay Rays, Charlie Morton hasn’t missed a beat as a starter for the Braves. Over his first two appearances, he’s pitched to a strong 2.06 FIP and is striking out batters at a 9.82 K/9 clip. His 27.6% Hard Hit Rate, while impressive in its own right, is also substantially lower than 35.1% he saw in 2020.

The Marlins have been one of the worst teams so far against right-handed pitching, compiling a .278 wOBA thus far, the eighth-worst mark overall.

Atlanta’s bullpen has been around league average so far through 39 2/3 innings, compiling a 4.35 FIP and allowing a very low 0.46 HR/9 innings.

 

Marlins-Braves Pick

While Neidert lacks the big-league experience to feel totally comfortable with at this point in his career, he did find success in his first start and will take the hill against a team that has largely struggled against righties so far.

On the other side, the Braves will be rolling with the always-consistent Morton against an opponent that has had very little success of their own so far against right-handed pitching.

After Tuesday’s high-scoring affair, I’m expecting a much closer matchup here and will be taking the under as my top pick. I’m comfortable at the current line of 8.5 runs, but would not be willing to take it if it falls below.

Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-110)

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