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MLB Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Yankees vs. Orioles Preview (Tuesday, April 27)

MLB Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Yankees vs. Orioles Preview (Tuesday, April 27) article feature image

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.

  • The last-place Yankees look to get their season going in Baltimore on Tuesday in a plus-matchup.
  • The Bronx Bombers have hit left-handed pitching well and face southpaw Bruce Zimmermann at Camden Yards.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down at which point he would back the Yanks against Baltimore.

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds

Yankees Odds -185
Orioles Odds +155
Over/Under 9.5
Time Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday and via PointsBet

The Baltimore Orioles’ win over the New York Yankees series opener on Monday night put them ahead of the Yankees, who are now in sole possession of last place in the American League East.

The Orioles were paced with a strong offensive performance from Cedric Mullins, whose three hits — which included a double and a home run — were the difference in the game.

The Yankees, meanwhile, managed just four hits, with their two runs driven in by Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela.

Can the Yankees bats finally break out on Tuesday night or will we see another muted performance from this star-studded lineup?

New York Yankees

Corey Kluber will get the nod for the Yankees on Tuesday night after an improved performance in his last outing against the Blue Jays. It was his best start of the season thus far, pitching four innings while allowing just one earned run and striking out five. He did, however, have three walks, something that has been a consistent issue for him so far in 2021, as evidenced by his 6.6 BB/9 ratio thus far.

Kluber’s overall season numbers have also left a bit to be desired. Over 15 innings pitched, he’s pitched to a 6.43 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 while allowing a .349 BABIP to opposing batters. He’s also yet to pitch five innings in any start, a mark he’ll look to hit for the first time on Tuesday night.

Lucky for Kluber, he gets a strong draw against the Orioles. Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .279 wOBA (third worst in all of baseball). The Orioles’ 81 wRC+ is also amongst the worst marks in the league.

If Kluber can get through at least five solid innings, Yankees manager Aaron Boone will feel comfortable going to a bullpen that has produced a league-leading 2.93 FIP so far over 88 1/3 innings.

Baltimore Orioles

Bruce Zimmermann will take the hill for the Orioles in what will be his fifth start of 2021. While the lefty posted two quality starts to begin the season, he’s struggled to find that level of consistency in two outings since.

Overall, Zimmermann’s season numbers have been mediocre at best. Over 21 2/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 4.52 xFIP and allowed 1.7 HR/9. In fact, Zimmermann hasn’t found much success anywhere above Class-A ball, where he spent part of the 2018 season there with the Atlanta Braves. With the exception of a season where he pitched to a 3.40 FIP in Double-A, he has not recorded a season since 2018 where he’s had a FIP below 4.30.

The Yankees’ right-handed-heavy lineup has been just league-average so far this season against southpaws (.312 wOBA, 104 wRC+), but key members of this lineup have historically crushed lefties. Giancarlo Stanton (.420 wOBA, .332 ISO), Judge (.408 wOBA, .275 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (.366 wOBA) are just a few examples of players with strong career numbers against left-handed pitching.

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Yankees-Orioles Pick

While the offense has struggled quite substantially to start the 2021 season, this matchup is a perfect get-right situation for the Bronx Bombers. Their big bats all match up extremely well against a pitcher in Zimmermann, who has struggled at every level since Double-A.

Kluber has also shown some improvement of-late and gets a matchup with an Orioles team that has found little success against right-handed pitching so far this season. If Kluber can avoid the big inning, the Yankees’ bats and strong bullpen should secure a victory.

While I fully expect the Yankees to win this game, I don’t see much value at the current moneyline. If the line shifts down below -170, I’ll be looking to lay some money on the Yankees. Otherwise, I’m staying away on this one.

Pick: Yankees below -170

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