Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks: Bet This Home Underdog On Monday Night

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds

On Monday night in an American League East divisional matchup, the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees. Even though it is officially a home game, the Blue Jays are not allowed in Toronto because of COVID-19 protocols, so they are currently playing their home games in Dunedin, Fl.

The Yankees have their ace Gerrit Cole on the mound, which is already baked into the line, and as a result the Blue Jays are large +170 underdogs.

I believe the Jays are quietly a contender to win the AL East and they have lefty Robbie Ray pitching for them as he is coming off the disabled list. Let's take a look a both teams and see if we can find some value on either side.

New York Yankees

Any conversation about the Yankees chances on Monday begin and end with  Cole. Outside of their ace, the rest of the Yankee rotation is vulnerable, yet without Cole they are typically heavy favorites to win.

Last year Cole had a 7-3 record with a 2.84 ERA, a 3.38 xFIP, and a strikeout rate of 11.59 strikeouts per nine innings. Most importantly, Cole averaged more than six innings per start, which limits the opportunities of opposing teams to come back if Cole leaves the game with a lead. The Yankees also have a great bullpen at their disposal, but all those factors combined do not merit the Yankees as almost -200 favorites.

The other reason why the Bronx Bombers are heavy favorites is because of their lineup. Even with Luke Voit still out with an injury, New York should not have a hard time producing runs. Outside of first base, which is occupied by either Jay Bruce or Rougned Odor, every player in the Yankees lineup is average or better offensively — particularly Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a plausible path to victory on Monday and that is mainly because of their lineup. While the Yankees' lineup is strong, my model projects the Yankees to produce 0.2 more runs in a typical game than the Blue Jays.

Toronto's lineup is led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Teoscar Hernández. Outside of Hernández and Guerrero, the Blue Jays' lineup is rounded out by average to above average offensive players. Currently the Jays average 4.56 runs per game, which is better than the league median, but still worse than what their ceiling. In a hitters ballpark in Florida, the Blue Jays could plausibly produce runs even against Cole and the Yankees' bullpen.

The only true vulnerability that the Blue Jays have is with left-handed starting pitcher Robbie Ray. Last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays, Ray had a 6.62 ERA in eleven starts. However, Ray’s xFIP of 5.84 suggests that while he performed badly, he did not perform as poorly as his ERA would suggest.

In the past, Ray has been a power pitcher who had had an xFIP of around 3.50 to 3.80. I expect him to return to form this season, and that makes the Blue Jays dangerous for Monday night’s game.

Yankees-Blue Jays Pick

The Yankees should win on Monday night, but their odds predictably are overinflated. While the Yankees have a well-rounded lineup and Cole pitching, it is not inconceivable that the Blue Jays could pull the upset.

The Blue Jays have a well-rounded lineup and a decent starting pitcher in Robbie Ray. Currently my model does not give me enough of an edge to justify taking a side in this game.

Right now, my plan is to wait for the Blue Jays to be +190 underdogs or greater, or to not bet this game at all. If the Toronto moneyline jumps to +190 or better, that is a bet that I will be taking tonight.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+190 or better)