MLB Best Bets: 2 Top Picks From Sunday’s Slate, Featuring Mariners vs. Rangers
Stephen Brashear/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Gilbert
- Sunday features a full slate of games on the Major League Baseball slate.
- Our analysts have targeted two games for their best bets and have broken them down.
- Keep reading for the picks and analysis.
Another Sunday in Major League Baseball is upon us and we have a full slate of games and numerous betting opportunities. Our analysts have targeted two games and are eying a runline and a moneyline selection.
Here are our best bets from Sunday's games.
MLB Odds & Picks
Padres vs. Nationals
Tony Sartori: The Padres are looking to continue their recent dominance and the Nationals are searching for answers as this weekend series concludes with a Sunday matinee.
Blake Snell is slated to take the mound for San Diego and he's been on quite a roll. Through 14 starts this season, Snell is 4-6 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Those surface-level stats do not tell the whole story. This season, Snell boasts a .288 xwOBA, .209 xBA and a .337 xSLG.
Recently, he's been even better. Over his past four outings, Snell is 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
Paolo Espino is slated to take the mound for Washington. Through 31 appearances this season, Espino is 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. A dive into his metrics doesn't inspire much confidence as Espino possesses a .341 xwOBA, .273 xBA and a .486 xSLG.
This is one of those plays where you need to shower afterward regardless of whether it hits. There is no denying that taking the Padres runline is greasy, chalky and square. That being said, it is the best bet to make in this game as San Diego possesses the better starting pitcher and lineup.
The Padres are looking to establish themselves as one of the best teams in baseball, while the Nationals look like they are attempting to lock in the number one pick in next year's draft.
Take the Padres on the runline and play it up to -170.
Mariners vs. Rangers
William Boor: Coming off a tough loss on Saturday, the Mariners are looking to clinch a series victory over the Rangers this afternoon and I'm backing them to do just that. With Julio Rodriguez back in the lineup, the Mariners have scored 10 runs over the past two games, but this bet is more of a play on Logan Gilbert.
The 25-year-old right-hander has carved up the Rangers this season. Gilbert has made a trio of starts against the Rangers and has pitched to a 1.02 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings. As this contest is in Texas, it's also noteworthy that two of those starts were on the road and that Gilbert has pitched better away from Seattle this season.
At T-Mobile Park, Gilbert has pitched to a 4.06 ERA, but that dips to 3.01 on the road. There is some concern that Gilbert has struggled since the All-Star break and was lit up in each of his past two starts, but those were both against the Yankees and that offense, despite its current funk, is capable of posting crooked numbers against anyone.
Martin Perez has put together a strong season for the Rangers, pitching to a 2.85 over 22 starts (136 innings). However, his 3.32 xERA suggests he's been just a tad lucky, so perhaps there's some room for the Mariners to take advantage and string some runs together. Perez is also coming off his worst start of the season, having given up seven runs over five innings against the Astros.
While both starting pitchers are certainly capable of shutting down the opposing lineup, the Mariners bullpen is a tad better than the Rangers, which will help if this game is close late.
The Mariners are 12-3 against the Mariners this season and I expect them to continue to dominate this matchup. Take Seattle at -120 and play it down to -150.
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