Tuesday MLB Playoff Odds, Picks and Predictions: Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics ALDS Game 2 (Oct. 6)

Astros vs. Athletics Game 2 Odds

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The Houston Astros took Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Tuesday with a 10-5 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

They were paced with strong offensive performances by Carlos Correa, who homered twice and drove in four runs, and George Springer, who added four hits out of the leadoff spot. Overall, this powerful Astros offense managed 16 total hits off of Athletics pitching.

The Athletics, meanwhile, were paced by Marcus Semien and Khris Davis, each of whom had multi-hit games. Davis had a big home run in the second inning that gave the Athletics an early lead. The A’s also had homers from Matt Olson and Sean Murphy.

Game 2 will feature a matchup between Houston’s Framber Valdez and A’s ace Sean Manaea.

Houston Astros

Valdez will look to build on a strong first postseason start in the Wild Card Round where he pitched five shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out five.

Valdez had a strong regular season, pitching to a 2.85 FIP, allowing just 0.64 HR/9 and striking out batters at a 9.7 K/9 clip. He also found success in his only meeting with the A’s. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out nine batters.

The A’s struggled against left-handed pitching during the regular season, collectively hitting to a .301 wOBA (23rd in all of baseball) and .152 ISO in such matchups. They also struck out 24.2% of the time, eighth-most amongst all teams.

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Oakland Athletics

Manaea will take the hill for the Athletics in Game 2. The A’s ace didn’t have his best statistical season (3.71 FIP, 7.5 K/9) in 2020, but he did what aces do and kept his team in the game. Over 11 starts, he never allowed more than four earned runs in a game. He also allowed two runs or less in five of them.

Longevity, however, has been an issue this season for Manaea. In those 11 starts, he gone seven innings just once and more than five innings just three times.

Overall, the Astros were not strong against left-handed pitching this season, collectively hitting to a .303 wOBA and .171 ISO against them. There were a few exceptions, though. Alex Bregman was especially strong, hitting to a .408 wOBA, .255 ISO and 166 wRC+ against southpaws. George Springer was also very good, hitting to a .339 wOBA and .271 ISO himself. Finally, yesterday’s hero Carlos Correa also found success with a .367 wOBA and 136 wRC+.

Betting Pick

This game is likely the be the closest we see in the series. Oddsmakers seem to agree as the current moneyline odds give a slight home edge to the Athletics at -115.

At -105, the value is on the Astros. The starting pitching matchup is closer than it appears, despite the name brand in Manaea towing the rubber for Oakland. The hitting matchup favors Houston who, despite not having the best collective numbers against lefties during the regular season, has three key offensive pieces that have hit left-handed pitching incredibly well.

Finally, where Oakland would typically have the advantage in the bullpen (their .364 FIP ranked third in all of baseball), that is somewhat negated after a Game 1 that required seven relief pitchers to be used after an abbreviated outing from starter Chris Bassitt.

I like the slight underdog Houston Astros in this one and will be wagering 0.5 units. I’m comfortable with this all the way up to -115.

The PICK: Houston Astros moneyline (-105)

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