MLB Odds, Picks, Previews & Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Royals vs. Tigers & Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (Sunday, September 4)
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
- There's just something special about day baseball, and we have plenty of it on Sunday.
- Our analysts have looked over the full slate and found value in a variety of ways including a moneyline, runline and a first-five bet.
- Continue reading for the picks and analysis.
There are 16 games across Major League Baseball on Sunday, which means there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our baseball experts have looked over the full slate and found value in a pair of games.
Our staff is eyeing the Royals-Tigers and Brewers-Diamondbacks games and betting them from a variety of angles as we have as first five innings bet, as well as a moneyline and runline play.
MLB Odds & Picks
Royals vs. Tigers
Tanner McGrath: Matt Manning blew up against the Mariners. That just means he’s primed for a bounce-back game. Remember, Manning had returned from injury and put together three quality starts across four games.
He dominated at home, allowing just one earned run across 20 innings pitched at Comerica Park. Manning will be happy to face a drop in talent, considering the Royals aren’t an offensive powerhouse and have posted just a 92 wRC+ since the start of August while also striking out at a top-10 rate. Plus, they’re going with Max Castillo for this start.
Castillo is a reliever who has been plugged in for spot starts this season, going over four innings just once. If Castillo can’t make it deep, he’ll leave behind a Kansas City bullpen that has pitched to a 6.08 ERA since August 1st.
The Tigers' lineup is horrific, though it has heated up slightly over the past two weeks, posting a 108 wRC+. I’ll take a shot with Detroit on Manning day at -115 and bet it down to -135.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Collin Whitchurch: Zac Gallen is on an unreal run right now — you just might not know it because he plays in the obscurity that is Phoenix and with the non-contending Diamondbacks. Gallen made six starts in August and hasn't allowed a single earned run in his past five.
That's right: Zero. In 34 1/3 innings.
He faced a couple cupcakes in there, but also went seven shutout at Coors Field and also held the red-hot Phillies to just two hits in seven innings last time out. Gallen is the real deal and he's a deserving favorite this afternoon in a matchup where Arizona's line is solely based off the pitching mismatch.
Jason Alexander, a 29-year-old rookie, is an unimposing force on the mound, a non-prospect thrust onto the scene out of necessity in Milwaukee, Alexander has been every bit as bad as his 4.97 ERA.
He doesn't miss bats, walks too many hitters and gives up a whole lot of hard contact. He'll be facing an offense that — despite several deficiencies — doesn't strike out a whole lot and isn't afraid to draw a walk.
If you just look at these teams in the standings, you might give a second look to the fact that Arizona is this big of a favorite, but there's a good reason.
I like the Diamondbacks first five at -160 and the full game, too, at -150. I would bet them to -170 and -160, respectively.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: Zac Gallen has been on an absolutely dominant run of late. He has not given up an earned run over his past five starts and he's been one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half.
Granted, he hasn't faced the best offenses over that stretch, but he has done exactly what a good pitcher does to bad offenses.
The Milwaukee Brewers offense has not been great on the road against right handers over the past couple of weeks. This makes them vulnerable to the Zac Gallen experience.
On the other side, Jason Alexander will be taking his over five road ERA and FIP into Sunday afternoon's match up against the fifth best team in the league at home against right handers over the past couple of weeks.
The Diamondbacks' offense is full of dangerous left-handed bats and are 7-3 over their past 10 games. They are playing great baseball and have even snuck up within half a game of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
The D'Backs runline was available at -1.5 for +140 odds at the time of this writing, but may go down overnight as people flock to back Gallen. This runline should remain in plus money due to the Diamondbacks' shaky bullpen, but they are due for some positive regression.
If Gallen could get the D'Backs deep into the game, this could be an excellent value as long as it's in plus money.
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