Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Preview (Sept. 9)

Brewers vs. Tigers Odds

Odds as of Wednesday at 7:10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Both the Brewers and Tigers are scrapping and clawing for the eighth and final playoff spot in their respective leagues. Detroit took Game 1 of the two-game series after a fantastic performance from Spencer Turnbull.

A win for either team tonight could bring it within one game of the final playoff spot.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Brewers Projected Lineup

The Brewers lineup has been below average all season, but has improved over the past week. In its last six games, it has accumulated a .337 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Most of the Brewers’ struggles this season have come against righties, but they’ve had good success against left-handed pitching, checking in with a .341 wOBA and 112 wRC+, which ranks ninth in MLB.

They should have no trouble against Boyd, who has been a gas can so far this season.

Brewers Probable Starter

Corbin Burnes, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Corbin Burnes has been fantastic so far in 2020, posting a 2.34 ERA and 3.61 xFIP through 38.1 innings. He’s been a strikeout machine, racking up a 12.44 K/9, which ranks in the top 10 of MLB. He’s been really effective with his secondary pitches, as all of them are allowing a wOBA under .300 and are producing a whiff rate over 30%.

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The Tigers only success offensively has come against fastballs this season, so Burnes will have a fantastic matchup on Wednesday afternoon if he sticks to his secondary pitches.

Tigers Projected Lineup

Detroit’s offense has been average this season, ranking 15th in MLB in terms of wOBA. It suffered a big blow last week, as JaCoby Jones fractured his hand and will likely be out for an extended period of time. Jones was an unexpected bright spot at the bottom of Detroit’s order, hitting five home runs and accumulating a .358 wOBA.

The Tigers have been somewhat one-dimensional this season, as they are crushing fastballs (18.5 weighted fastball runs) but are struggling against every other pitch type. They’ve also struggled versus right-handed pitching, accumulating a .305 wOBA. They’ll have a tough matchup against Burnes on Wednesday.

Tigers Probable Starter

Matthew Boyd, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Matthew Boyd has been awful so far in 2020, accumulating a 6.64 ERA and 4.26 xFIP through eight starts. He’s been really struggling with his fastball and slider, allowing a .284 average to opponents on both pitches. He’s also had major issues keeping the ball in the yard, as his HR/9 is all the way up at 2.43.

He’ll have a tough matchup on Wednesday against a Brewers lineup that has been crushing left-handed pitching.

Bullpens

Milwaukee’s bullpen has been fantastic this season, posting the third-best xFIP (3.98) in MLB. Detroit’s bullpen has been below average this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of MLB. So, the Brewers will have the advantage in the bullpen department on Wednesday.

Projections and Pick

I think the Burnes/Boyd matchup is a significant advantage for the Brewers. Therefore, I am going to back Milwaukee at -155 and for the first five innings at -150.

I would play both up to -170.

Pick: Brewers first five innings (-150); Brewers full game (-155)

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