MLB Odds, Picks (Friday, July 31): Betting Predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Editor’s Note: Friday’s game between the Cardinals and Brewers has been postponed due to a positive Coronavirus test.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

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With Cubs off to hot start, Friday’s series opener is crucial if the Cardinals or Brewers will be able to keep pace. The Cardinals dropped two games at the beginning of the week in Minnesota and will send their young ace to the mound in hopes he can start the series off right.

Milwaukee took two of three in Pittsburgh and will need to keep the positive momentum going with Brett Anderson on the mound.

Cardinals

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

St. Louis has been pretty poor to begin the season offensively with a .291 wOBA and 91 wRC+. In fact, in its last four games, it has accumulated only four runs on 15 hits.

The Cardinals aren’t very loaded in the power department, either. Outside of Paul Goldschmidt, they don’t have another consistent home run threat.

St. Louis is in a transition mode of sorts, with mainstays like Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong getting up there in age while younger guys like Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman and Tyler O’Neill are being introduced to the lineup.

If the Cardinals are going to challenge for the World Series, they’ll have drastically improve offensively.

Cardinals Projected Starter

Jack Flaherty, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Flaherty was pretty good in his first start allowing two earned on six hits, over seven innings of work. He was effective with his three main pitches, striking out six batters and allowing no extra base hits.

Flaherty is a top-five starter according to my model. He led Major League Baseball in batting average against in 2019, and he could do it again this year. He has a main four-pitch arsenal and they’re all fantastic. His slider and curveball are especially lethal — both garnered higher than a 40% whiff rate last season.

As you can see, it’s almost untouchable.

Brewers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Milwaukee hasn’t had the greatest start to the 2020 season, compiling a measly .288 wOBA and 95 wRC+.

Christian Yelich is the key piece of Craig Counsell’s lineup and he’s been struggling out of the gate with only one hit so far in 29 plate appearances. Needless to say, if the Brewers want to have any chance at the postseason, he’ll need to find a way out of his slump.

Brewers Projected Starter

Brett Anderson, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Brett Anderson’s age is starting to show. In 2019, he posted some of the worst numbers of his career, including a 4.79 xFIP.

The reason for his step back in 2019 can be contributed to his sinker. Anderson uses it as his primary pitch, throwing it 43.8% of the time. Opponents were a lot more successful against it in 2019 compared to 2018 as his wOBA against rose by 0.051 points.

Anderson’s fastball and changeup were pretty effective in 2019, but he shouldn’t need to go to them too often against the Cardinals. St. Louis who ranked 29th against sinkers last season, so look for Anderson to go to his bread and butter often on Friday afternoon.

Bullpens

With both teams having a day off yesterday, both pens should be fully rested for Friday’s game. As you can see, the bullpen matchup is basically a wash.

Projections and Pick

With both offenses getting off to a slow start and the starting pitchers having favorable matchups, I think this will be a low-scoring game. So, I am going to give you the rare double pick for this game.

I am going to back Under 8.5 runs at +100 and would bet it up to -110. I am also going to back the Brewers +125 and would bet them down to +117.

Picks: Under 8.5 (+100) & Brewers +123 [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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