Saturday MLB Odds, Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top Picks, Including Giants vs. Guardians, Phillies vs. Marlins, More (April 16)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Realmuto
- Saturday's MLB slate includes plenty of betting value across the board.
- Our analysts are targeting Giants vs. Guardians, Phillies vs. Marlins and more.
- Continue reading for our staff's best bets from Saturday's MLB slate.
There’s plenty of intrigue across the board, and our analysts have pin-pointed three games with value: Athletics vs. Blue Jays, Giants vs. Guardians and Phillies vs. Marlins.
Here are our three best bets from Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
|6:10 p.m. ET|
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
DJ James: The Oakland Athletics have had a decent start to the year, and Paul Blackburn’s first outing was a three-hit shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays.
He will battle Hyun-jin Ryu of the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday, who had the opposite result in his first appearance of the season. Even if the A’s are significant underdogs in this game, they have a fair shot at winning.
For one, against fastballs from lefties — which Ryu will use around 37% of the time — Oakland fares well. Dating back to the beginning of 2021, they have six hitters boasting a .330+ xwOBA on this pitch. They may have trouble a bit with his off-speed pitches, but if they sit on the fastball, they will produce some runs.
In addition, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been disappointing. They do have some options, but if Oakland is able to jump on Ryu early, Toronto will be stretched. This will play into Oakland’s hands if they can get the long relief piece of the bullpen into the game. There is a massive drop-off from Jordan Romano to Julian Merryweather & Co.
Blackburn allows some hard contact, but he does not walk many hitters. The strikeout rate will likely settle in around 17%, but the walk rate in his first start was a good sign, particularly given how formidable Toronto’s lineup can be.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Jules Posner: Bernie Sanders: “I am once again asking you to take the Giants/Guardians under”
The Giants and Guardians under hit Friday night and there isn’t a good reason why it won’t hit again on Saturday.
The Giants have Anthony DeSclafani on the mound and he looks up to back up Carlos Rodon’s dominant performance from Friday night with a solid start of his own.
DeSclafani had a less-than-ideal season debut, but this is a great opportunity for him to bounce back against an overperforming Guardians lineup that was humbled on Friday night.
Cal Quantrill is on the mound for the Guardians, and for as good as he was in 2021, he was exceptional at home. He posted a 2.35 ERA with a 3.60 FIP at home, and while the Giants still struggle to put up huge run totals, propensity for keeping the ball in the park and on the ground at home should help suppress the Giants’ offense.
It’s a solid offense, but not exactly hot in the early going, and this seems like it’s going to be another low scoring affair between two teams that are eerily similar in construction.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
|6:10 p.m. ET|
Charlie DiSturco: The Philadelphia Phillies look to right the ship and end a four-game losing streak against the Miami Marlins on the back of Ranger Suarez on Saturday night. They draw a tough matchup against southpaw Trevor Rogers, but I think they have the edge in this matchup.
For starters, Suarez was fantastic last season. Going from reliever to starter, he finished with a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings — 12 starts — and ranked inside the top four percent of all pitchers in xERA (2.60), xSLG (.278) and xWOBA (.250).
While I think he won’t be able to replicate this season in 2022, mostly because he’s now a full-time starter, there’s no denying he has the talent to succeed in the majors. He limits hard contact and takes care of both left- and right-handed hitters.
Tack on the fact that if you look at the previous two games between the Phillies and Marlins, where the Fish came out victorious, it was actually Philadelphia that graded out better offensively.
Despite being outscored 11-4, the Phillies finished with an xBA higher than Miami in both games, including a shocking .301 xBA in Friday night’s loss, per Baseball Savant, when they scored just one run.
Though it may look like it, the Phillies’ bats are not swinging poorly, they’re just getting bad bounces and a bit misfortunate. I think they’re due for a bounce-back performance and will come out strong against Rogers and the Marlins.
Back Suarez the Philadelphia to get back on track and end their four-game losing streak.