MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Rockies: Expect the Ball to Fly at Coors Field (Monday, May 10)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: The Rockies celebrate a Charlie Blackmon walk-off last week at Coors Field.
Editor’s Note: Monday’s game between the Padres and Rockies has been postponed because of inclement weather. It will be made up as part of a traditional doubleheader on May 12.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||10 (-104 / -118)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Two teams down on their luck offensively will come together in Colorado in a matchup that will pin two pitchers with dangerous peripherals against each other.
With some promising signs from the Padres on Sunday, and a good run of overs for the Rockies, is there value in taking the total even at this high number? Let’s dig into this one and figure it out.
San Diego Padres
After waking up the bats in a massive 11-1 win over the Giants, the Padres will try to get some positive momentum going at the plate at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. It should be a nice way to forget about a miserable week which saw the Padres stumble to a 3-3 record, and fail to do much damage at all with the bats.
San Diego has the seventh-worst wRC+ over the last week, sitting at 78, posting a .630 OPS. Strikeouts haven’t a big issue for the Friars, though they haven’t walked too much, either, sitting at 7.7%. It seems that they’ve been victims of some rotten luck, however with an impressive 43% hard-hit rate over that span which ranks fifth in the league.
With nothing new to report on the injury front, let’s talk about Dinelson Lamet for a second. The righty will get the ball for the third time this year for San Diego, and he’s yet to allow a run in four innings even though he’s yielded five hits and a walk. He managed to strike out four in his first start of the year, but against the Pirates he looked very pedestrian.
With half of the balls that are coming back in play traveling at 95 mph or more, there’s a big cloud of doubt hovering over Lamet’s head as he enters a matchup in the worst pitchers’ park in the league. This could send his season in the right direction, or it could start a downward spiral as he tries to re-establish himself after so many injuries.
How bad has Colorado’s offense been this year? Well, even in the 18 home games the Rockies have played, at the best park for hitters in the league, they have a poor 86 wRC+. It’s no surprise, then, to see that this team’s gone just 2-14 on the road, carrying some lethargic bats around city to city.
That’s bad news for a team running Antonio Senzatela out onto the hill. His ERA sits at an ugly 5.76 right now, and he’s given up a boatload of contact with a whiff rate sitting in the bottom 5% of the league, and a very poor 13.1% strikeout rate. This is nothing new for the righty, and it’s definitely questionable why a team that plays its home games at Coors Field would believe in a guy who pitches to contact.
At any rate, Senzatela will have to limit hard contact, which has has not done a good job of so far this year considering he’s posted a 41.7% hart-hit rate, and he will need to continue trending upwards in the strikeout department, as he’s done ever so slightly over the past three outings.
It’s worth noting here that the over has hit in seven of the last nine games played by the Rockies, and five of those have been on the road. It’s been a result of some pretty horrific pitching, but the bats have mixed in some sporadic big days as well.
With Colorado’s affinity for hitting the over, and two pitchers on the hill in questionable spots, I’m inclined to bet on runs here even with such a high number. Considering the quality of contact being made right now by the Padres, there is reason to believe positive regression will set in with this team in a ballpark famous for helping out offenses.
I’m also not entirely sure Lamet will have it here, and think we could see his ERA correct a little bit in the innings he does pitch. I think it’d be reasonable to expect 12 or more runs here.
Pick: Over 10 (-104)