Monday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Diamondbacks, Two Other Totals
Robbie Ray. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Contrarian dogs are finally starting to bark for wiseguy baseball bettors. After posting their worst April since 2005 (-21.77 units), dogs getting 30% or less bets bounced back to produce +5.68 units in May and +12.95 units in June. The slow but steady regression is a great sign for sharps as they flip the calendar to July and enter the Dog Days of Summer.
After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals Over 7.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors see two elite starting pitchers toeing the rubber (Rick Porcello vs Max Scherzer) and don’t know which way to go with the total. But sharps have taken a clear side. Currently 55% of bets are on the Over, but it accounts for 93% of dollars. This indicates moderate public support and heavy, heavy wiseguy support.
Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds Under 9.5
7:10 p.m. ET
The public sees James Shields (4.29 ERA) pitching against a red-hot Cincinnati lineup in a Little League ballpark and says automatic Over. Not the sharps.
Currently 66% of bets are on the Over, yet the total has either remained frozen at 9.5 with heavy Under juice (-123) or fallen to 9 depending on the book.
This is significant because they still hit the Under even though they missed out on the hook, signaling wiseguy confidence in a low-scoring game. The Under is also getting more money (46%) than bets (34%), another sign that sharps are on the Under.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8
9:40 p.m. ET
Sharps are eyeing a profitable contrarian Under spot in the Desert tonight. Despite more than 65% of bets taking the Over, the total juice has moved from 8 Under -105 to 8 Under -113, indicating Under liability.
These moves are notable because, not only are the all on the same side, but they come from three of the sharpest offshore books with the highest limits. Two added bonuses for Under players: the roof is closed and the Under matches the profitable Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams Bet Labs system (+179.75 units since 2005).
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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