Contrarian dogs are finally starting to bark for wiseguy baseball bettors. After posting their worst April since 2005 (-21.77 units), dogs getting 30% or less bets bounced back to produce +5.68 units in May and +12.95 units in June. The slow but steady regression is a great sign for sharps as they flip the calendar to July and enter the Dog Days of Summer.
After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals Over 7.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors see two elite starting pitchers toeing the rubber (Rick Porcello vs Max Scherzer) and don’t know which way to go with the total. But sharps have taken a clear side. Currently 55% of bets are on the Over, but it accounts for 93% of dollars. This indicates moderate public support and heavy, heavy wiseguy support.
The total opened at 7 and quickly moved to 7.5. Typically, 55% of bets might move the juice slightly, but not cause a total to move a full half run. The total rose because of an overload of sharp Over action. Pro players at Buckeye, Pinnacle and BetOnline all got down hard on the Over 7 early, causing the total to tick up a half run. The BetOnline move is especially notable (+22.3 units, best MLB total move this season). At Bookmaker, one of the sharpest offshore books, the Over 7.5 is juiced up to -115, indicating Over liability and the next move likely to 8. An added bonus for wiseguy Over players: it will be a hot, clear night with the wind blowing out. Ideal hitting conditions.