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Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Taillon, Pirates Take On Twins In Minnesota
Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jameson Taillon
Betting odds: Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (9-8, 3.63 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (4-7, 4.50 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 77-51-3, +20.6 units
Yesterday’s Result: Angels-Padres Under 8, Heaney vs. Richard (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Man, last night’s bad beat was as cruel and painful as it gets. Unfortunately, there’s nothing we can do when something like that happens, so let’s just put it behind us and move on to Tuesday.
For tonight’s over/under, I’ll be leaning on the one pitcher I’ve covered more than any other this season, Taillon, who has been in an absolute groove for some time.
>> All odds as of 6 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Not only is the 6-foot-5 right-hander coming off a rare complete game in Colorado — which made him the first National League pitcher to deliver two complete games, by the way — he’s also made a whopping 13 consecutive starts in which he’s allowed no more than three earned runs entering tonight’s interleague series opener in Minnesota.
As I’ve analyzed countless times already, this should be the norm for Taillon, who has all the tools to serve as the leader of the Pirates’ rotation for years to come, and with his team in the hunt, there’s no way he’s letting up.
Taillon will also be in a good spot tonight. Aside from the fact that the Twins have slugged the fourth-fewest homers in the league, the second pick of the 2010 MLB draft will work out of Target Field, which is a pitcher-friendly park.
This will be Taillon’s fifth interleague road start, and in the first four, he went 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while racking up 24 strikeouts against five walks over 26 innings. All four of those outings were quality starts as well, and one more here would be very beneficial for an under as high as 9.
But can Odorizzi hold his end of the bargain? The former Ray has been inconsistent in his first year with the Twins and has posted career-worst marks in ERA (4.50), WHIP (1.41) and batting average against (.258) through 24 starts.
Despite that, Odorizzi could get us across the board. He has generally been better at home compared to on the road, and while that trend has flipped in 2018, I believe a regression can occur there that would spark an improvement in the 28-year-old’s numbers in Minnesota. Entering tonight, his ERA at Target Field (5.13) is more than a full run higher than it is in his road outings (4.01), something I don’t feel will hold up as the season continues to unfold.
Odorizzi has also looked better overall as of late, yielding two runs or fewer in six of his past eight outings. He’s also been less susceptible to the long ball, with just four home runs served up in his last 12 starts, spanning 57 innings. As long as he can survive out there, combined with Taillon contributing his usual steady performance, that may be enough to cash a winning under here.
Play: UNDER 9 (-120)