We have a 14-game slate today, starting early with 4 games at 6:40 p.m. ET, including Braves vs Marlins and Guardians vs Tigers, and closing at 9:40 p.m. ET with another 3 games, including Dodgers vs Padres and White Sox vs Mariners.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Monday.
Below are four expert MLB picks and predictions for today's slate of games.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Braves vs Marlins ML Pick
Editor’s Note: This written pick is a transcription from today’s episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
By Sean Zerillo
There’s a pretty big starting pitching gap in this one. I have Max Meyer as my SP50 and J.R. Ritchie as my SP145.
Ritchie just hasn’t shown he can command the baseball at the major league level yet — 16% walk rate, a 2.2% K-BB rate, and a 5.5 SIERA. There’s definitely arm talent there, but the command hasn’t come together.
This Marlins offense has been underrated. Jakob Marsee is finally starting to hit the ball a bit better, which is big for me since I’m on some of his props/runs-and-bases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stolen base props. Even while hitting under .200, he’s still on pace for around 45 steals.
Overall, I thought this Marlins team was underrated coming into the season. They’ve played right around their win total so far, and I think they can be even better going forward — especially with Max Meyer taking a step forward.
Meyer has been solid this year. He’s bumped up his K-BB rate to 18%, increased his whiff rate, and he’s now throwing both a slider and a sweeper, generating tons of swings and misses with both.
The gap in command between these two starters is drastic. The Atlanta Braves have the better offense and probably the better bullpen (No. 6 vs. No. 11 in my rankings), plus a 10-point edge in wRC+. But even with all that, I still make the Marlins about -125 at home.
Pick: Marlins ML (-115 or better)
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Sean Paul's Blue Jays vs Yankees Best Bet
By Sean Paul
It's a homecoming for New York native Patrick Corbin, who draws the start in this series opener from the Bronx.
The fact that Corbin continues to trick MLB teams into giving him starts is a minor miracle. The now 36-year-old has a 3.93 ERA in seven starts.
Not bad, right? Well, it won't last for long, as his xERA is 6.09 with a 4.17 FIP. His FIP is lower due to his strong 0.79 HR/9. He doesn't strike anyone out, posting a 15% strikeout rate with a 17.5% whiff rate. The only chance Corbin has of pitching well is if teams hit the ball hard on the ground, as he throws his sinker 33% of the time.
The Yankees will send Ryan Weathers to the hill with an extra day of rest, as he was supposed to pitch yesterday. In his first year in the Big Apple, Weathers has pitched to a strong 3.00 ERA, but his 4.21 xERA and 3.30 FIP point to possible regression.
The batted ball data for Weathers is worrisome. He sits in the 15th percentile in barrel rate and 33rd in hard-hit rate, which leads to a shaky 1.20 HR/9. On the bright side, that's lower than last year's 1.64, and the Blue Jays don't have the thump to expose his weakness.
He will need to get more creative here. Weathers is best at striking out hitters, running a 10.80 K/9 — one of the best marks in MLB. The Blue Jays will sell out to put the ball in play, even at the expense of quick at-bats. He needs to put the ball in spots where Toronto will swing, but avoid doing real damage.
From a handicap standpoint, the Yankees laying -1.5 runs at plus money is a strong play. Corbin should struggle with this dominant New York lineup, and this Blue Jays offense is in a tough spot.
The one concern is the Yankees' bullpen, as we saw on Sunday with David Bednar blowing a three-run save in the ninth. Let's just hope the Yankees build enough cushion to avoid another bullpen meltdown from Bednar, Camilo Doval, and others.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (play to -115)
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Sean Zerillo's Red Sox vs Royals Total & Moneyline Picks
Editor’s Note: This written pick is a transcription from today’s episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
By Sean Zerillo
I am playing the Royals Moneyline and the over total runs in this game.
The wind is blowing out pretty aggressively in this park today. It's blowing out aggressively in a lot of places, but this is probably the most extreme weather, aside from maybe Wrigley—though the wind is even stronger here than it is at Wrigley.
In general, we should get an offensive boost here; I project this total closer to 10 and we’re getting 9 flat. This one opened at 9.5 and went down to 9.
In terms of the moneyline, Sonny Gray was better in his last start, but on the year, he really is not missing bats—10% strikeout-minus-walk rate and dealt with an injury issue that he ended up coming back from.
As for Seth Lugo, his numbers are kind of all over the place when you look at his profile: 3.3 xFIP, 4.2 SIERA, and a 4.85 xERA.
Lugo is in three different ranges of underlying indicators. Normally, two of those three indicators are going to be close to one another, but his are literally elite and bad.
I don't really know what to make of that other than the fact that he's just gotten lucky with his home run rate this year, and I think that will eventually regress.
However, with Seth Lugo over the past couple of years, that ERA has held steady regardless of what the indicators are. He's a league-average starter for me; Sonny Gray is slightly better than that, even though he hasn't pitched up to that level this year.
The Royals have the better offense by about six points in terms of wRC+.
The Red Sox have the better bullpen, closer to league average, while the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
Ultimately, I make the Royals about -115; you can bet them up to -110. I make the total 9.9. You could bet that Over 9.5 at -105.
This is one of the better-looking weather games on the Monday slate. We'll see if it ends up playing out that way, because I feel like every time the wind is blowing out at Kansas City, nobody scores, and as soon as it's cold or the wind is blowing in, all the base hits start falling in.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (-104) // Over 9 (-122)
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Jon Anderson's White Sox vs Mariners K Prop Bet
By Jon Anderson
Two pretty interesting pitchers are going in this one. The giant Noah Schultz heads to Seattle to face Bryan Woo. Schultz hasn't had the best time in the majors so far, posting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. His problem has been walks.
He's issued 21 free passes in 29.1 innings. He doesn't have a single pitch with a ball rate below the league average. It looks pretty disastrous for him from a command standpoint.
But Bryan Woo is my focal point.
Woo enters this matchup with back-to-back nine-strikeout games and 28 total whiffs across those outings against the Braves and Astros.
The White Sox are second in the league in home runs now, so you can never fully count on a starting pitcher to stay under an earned-runs prop. But opposing starters are usually piling up strikeouts and working efficiently if they're throwing enough strikes to force the White Sox to swing the bats.
This is an offense that likes to walk and likes to hit the long ball. Woo is going to come right after them, and that should work in his favor tonight.
Pick: Bryan Woo 7+ Strikeouts
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