Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 8: Back Houser or Lester in Brewers-Cubs?
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Lester.
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet the Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Cubs (76-65) come into Sunday three games clear of the Brewers (73-68) for second place in the NL Wild Card – with just the Diamondbacks (75-67) situated between them.
Arizona has one of the easier schedules for the next three weeks, while three teams in a deep NL Central are beating up on one another; potentially leaving that division with only one playoff spot if the Diamondbacks and Nationals both get in.
Can the Cubs extend their lead over Milwaukee on Sunday, or will a Brewers pitcher help edge them closer to contention?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-4, and I finished down 0.26 units for the day.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 41 cents against the sides that I played, netting as much as 22 cents against the Indians moneyline (+147 to +125) and 11 cents against their F5 moneyline (+137 to +126).
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, Sept. 8
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and seven moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Rays, Padres, Pirates and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes those teams, in addition to the Astros and Brewers as F5 plays.
Therefore, there’s a lot of potential chalk on the board today, and I created a couple of parlays with the bigger prices, including the Astros and Rays.
Tyler Glasnow will pitch two or three innings for Tampa Bay before turning the game over to the bullpen, and it’s nice to seed the hard-throwing righty back on the hill.
Few pitchers have posted a 48-inning stretch this season as dominant as Glasnow’s start to the year (2.30 FIP, 2.98 xFIP) before he experienced forearm discomfort.
He was blowing away hitters with a fastball averaging 97.5 mph and his ridiculous curveball, using that two-pitch combination over 95% of the time:
Tyler Glasnow, Disgusting Breaking Ball….and Gladiator K Strut. 😯 pic.twitter.com/zlq35jNtxm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2019
I also went against my number with the Tigers, due to the Athletics’ notable trends vs. left-handed pitching, and the Tigers woeful record in recent Septembers.
Dating back to 2017, the Tigers are 18-45 (28.6%, -18.5 units) on the moneyline in September. Only the Orioles, at 15-46 (24.6%, -22.5 units) have cost bettors more money, as these bottom dwellers-struggle their way to the finish line.
I included Oakland in a parlay with Tampa Bay, and also played them on the game spread behind Sean Manaea, who looked very sharp returning against the Yankees:
Nice surprise for Sean Manaea to make it all the way back this season. The slider came up big for him in 2019 debut vs. Yankees. pic.twitter.com/zztTJir5Ds
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) September 2, 2019
The one straight moneyline play that I prefer on Sunday is on the Brewers in the first five innings, against Jon Lester and the Cubs.
Adrian Houser continues to excel in the Brewers rotation (4.07 FIP, 3.71 xFIP), with good command and a high groundball rate (54%).
He has excellent arm-side command over his sinker, which he can use to pound right-handed hitters inside:
Or to dot them on the outside corner:
Jon Lester is 19-29-11 (39.6%, -10.1 units) on the F5 moneyline over the past two seasons, and Houser will be among the chalk that I’m backing on Sunday.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 8
- Milwaukee Brewers (-130) F5 Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, -140) Game Spread
- Parlay (+106): Rays (-195) and Athletics (-275)
- Parlay (-116): Rays (-195) and Astros (-430)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/8
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.