MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/26: Can the A’s Complete the Sweep in Seattle?

On Saturday, the New York Mets won in walk-off fashion on a home run by backup catcher Tomas Nido in the 13th inning.

The post-game celebration might have been more epic than the home run, though. Nido's teammates got him in three different ways:

That Gatorade-soaked popcorn will be awfully fun for the field staff to clean up.

Anyway, it's Sunday, and we've got a full day of baseball ahead. So grab a seat, and let's get to it:

Recapping Yesterday's MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My tracked plays went 6-5, and I was up 0.65 units for the day.

Saturday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 14 cents on Atlanta's F5 moneyline (-125 to -139) and a penny on the Rays (+116 to +115). The over in the Miami-Washington game also went up by one half run (from 8.5 to 9.0).

However, I lost 10 cents on the Pirates moneyline (+160 to +170), 9 cents on the Oakland spread (+145 to +154) and finished even with the Yankees moneyline (-155).

On Deck for Sunday, May 26

All odds as of Sunday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Sunday, May 26. 

The model recommends two full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday. 

As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies as the full-game plays. It also likes the Phillies and the Minnesota Twins as F5 plays.

I played the Phillies on the full game moneyline at 1.5x on my money. Philadelphia has beaten Milwaukee in two straight games and is going for the sweep on Sunday.

I discussed Zach Eflin before his last outing, during which he threw a quality start in Chicago despite striking out just two batters against four walks on the afternoon.

The Phillies' fair odds are closer to +120 for today, and you're likely getting an odds boost because the public simply expects the Brewers to avoid the sweep in this spot.

Instead of playing the Twins on the F5 moneyline, I played them on the F5 spread at odds of -160 (typically the most vig that I will lay in baseball).

I show the Twins as a 75% favorite in the first half today, as Jake Odorizzi has pitched to a 2.38 ERA and a 3.25 FIP over his first 10 starts in 2019.

Odorizzi made one small tweak to his arsenal this year, increasing his curveball usage from 5.4% (both career and in 2018) to 13% in 2019:

His strikeout minus walk rate (15.6%) is the highest that it's been since 2014 with the Rays when Odorizzi was a true-talent sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.

Although his preseason projections suggested an ERA of about 4.30 (4.17 career FIP, 4.49 ERA in 2018), Odorizzi currently sports a 2.38 ERA thanks to allowing just 0.68 home runs per nine innings (career 1.22) on a 6.2% home run to flyball rate (career 10.4%) with a .244 BABIP (.271 career) while stranding 81.7% of baserunners (74.7% career).

Regression is coming for Odorizzi, but there are also signs that he can maintain a sub-4.00 ERA in his remaining 2019 outings.

Also, he will face Dylan Covey, a pitcher with nearly three times the number of walks (17) as strikeouts (6) on the season in over 20 innings pitched.

Three other plays I made at smaller edges were the Athletics, Dodgers and Red Sox.

Oakland is looking for a three-game sweep today in Seattle against a Mariners team that is 5-17 with a -56 run differential in May (average margin of -2.54 runs). The A's are 13-7 in May with a +41 run differential (average margin of +2.05 runs).

Mike Leake also sports a .377 wOBA and .376 xwOBA in 2019, suggesting an expected ERA north of 6.25.

The Dodgers make for a solid play because Chris Archer is showing a velocity decline in 2019. His fastball is down exactly 2.0 mph over last season (95.3 mph to 93.3 mph), while his sinker (-1.4 mph), slider (-0.7 mph) and changeup (-0.5 mph) have each also seen velocity drops.

Archer's strikeout minus walk rate (12.1%) is over 5.5% below his career average and back to his 2013-2014 levels with Tampa Bay. His FIP (5.17) and xFIP (5.09) confirm the validity of his 5.55 ERA, as does his .351 xwOBA, which equates to an expected ERA of 5.51.

Lastly, I played the Red Sox, who are looking to avoid being swept by Justin Verlander and the Astros. Boston had their chances last night, coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the ninth inning before failing to record an out in Houston's ninth.

They'll be a contrarian play today with the public lining up to back the 8-1 Verlander, who recently flirted with his third career no-hitter in an eight-inning, 12 strikeout performance against the White Sox.

Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez isn't an ace, nor he is an All-Star, but he is an effective lefty who can pitch the Red Sox past the Astros today.

Rodriguez has pitched to a FIP of under 3.70 since the start of the 2018 season and owns the highest swinging strike rate (13%) of his career in 2019.

He throws five pitches (four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, changeup) but excels with the fastball-changeup combination:

Rodriguez also gets to face an Astros lineup that is without both Jose Altuve and George Springer — a boost to his potential chances.

Bets (So Far) for May 26

• Boston Red Sox (+167) Game Moneyline
• Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.5, -115) F5 Spread
• Minnesota Twins (-0.5, -160) F5 Spread
• Oakland Athletics (-141) Game Moneyline
• Philadelphia Phillies (+150) Game Moneyline
• Under 8.5, Boston at Houston

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Sunday, May 26.

Zerillo's Full MLB Model, 5/26

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.