MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/8: How to Approach Doubleheaders in Boston, Texas
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Rangers starting pitcher Adrian Sampson
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 8 with his model below and highlights Reds-Phillies (4:05 p.m. ET) and Cardinals-Cubs (7:15 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I’ll be attending the Belmont Stakes on Saturday June 8, and today’s writeup will be short and sweet since I don’t have access to lines for either ends of two doubleheaders (Tampa Bay vs. Boston and Oakland vs. Texas) or the first five innings (F5) of any game at the time of publication.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-4 against full-game moneylines and 2-5 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.
My tracked plays went 1-5 and I finished down 2.34 units for the day.
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 36 cents overall against moneylines and spreads and 18 cents against totals.
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, June 8
The model recommends four full-game moneylines on Saturday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants as full-game plays.
I also played the St. Louis Cardinals again at an edge of 3.4%, as they took professional action for the second straight day against the Cubs.
I wrote up Jack Flaherty before his last start against Chicago, and have noted that sharps tend to go against Jon Lester.
Respective batted ball data in 2019 represents an expected 4.08 ERA for Flaherty and 5.74 ERA for Lester.
Of the model recommended plays, I went with only the Reds at the Phillies.
Tanner Roark might be pitching the best that he has in his career, with a 3.47 ERA and 3.29 FIP, striking out over nine batters per game. Since the calendar turned to May he owns a 38:10 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings.
I sided both with my projection, and a steam move on the Reds at +125.
As for the two doubleheaders, the optimal approach is to play a favorite on the road in Game 2 after a win as a favorite in Game 1. The A’s might fit that bill, and I’ll look to play them in Game 2 on the moneyline following an afternoon win if they are favored in both games.
The fact that the Rays matchup against lefty David Price comes in Game 2 of their own doubleheader leaves me hesitant to play Tampa in this spot vs. a southpaw.
Th Rays are 39-26, +19.6% ROI on the moneyline vs. left-handed starters since the start of 2018.
Bets (So Far) for June 8
- Cincinnati Reds (+120) Game Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (-108) Game Moneyline
- Over 8.0 (-115), LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/8
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.